Rooks

The biggest question coming into this season was, could Brent repeat? The second question after that was, would RGIII last a full season? The third question, was of course, was would the NFL continue to wear pink in support of breast cancer? And then finally, how will the rookies preform? In order to really understand how the rookies are doing we need a benchmark. Our bogie will be the performance of the Rookies last year...  Ben, Brent, Sean. That is quite the lineup, as Brent won the championship and Ben was the Rookie of the year. Sean.... he didn't do so well.

First lets average: last year's rookie's win %, score, margin of victory, margin of loss

Rookies last year through week six
Avg. win % - .500
   - Best record: Ben 4-2
   - Worst record: Sean 2-4
**What I glean from this is that you need start strong. Rarely do teams turn it completely around.

Avg. score - 102
   - Best: Ben 115
   - Worst: Sean 92

Avg. margin win - 22
   - B: Ben 32
   - W: Sean 13
Avg. margin loss - (16)
   - B: Brent (12)
   - W: Ben (24)
**I find it interesting that Ben was blowing people out, but was also blown out in losses. Brent was able to keep things closer in losses, as his margins of loss was about half of Ben's margin of loss.... Brent also had a margin of victory of 22. While Ben was explosive, he was also unpredictable  - his standard deviation in scores over the first six weeks was 20. The swings in scoring was too much for Ben to win it all. While Brent had a standard deviation of 10.

Rookies this year through week six (Jamie, Dan, Scott K)
Avg. win % - .500
   - B: Jamie/Dan 4-2
   - W: Scott K 1-5
**CAPTAIN OBVIOUS ALERT: Jamie and Dan are in a good spot... Scott K, there is no hope for you.

Avg. score - 95
   - B: Dan 103
   - W: Scott K 82

Avg. margin win - 30
   - B: Jamie 32
   - W: Dan 29
**Scott K lone win was a big one in week 1 and basically an outlier.
Avg. margin loss - (15)
   - B: Dan (4)
   - W: Scott (27)
**Despite the low scores (the league only averaged ~99 a game) Dan and Jamie are blowing out teams and they both have been able to keep it close (Jamie losses by ~14 a game).

What does this all really mean? Does it even matter? Am I just wasting time? Yes, yes I am.

• Points are more difficult to come by this year. This is probably due to fact that we added two other managers to the league. 
• Despite the lower scores rookies are winning by a greater margin. 
• The first six week set the tone for the rest of the season and is replicated in the next six weeks, as we will see...

Looking at last year's rookies records AFTER week 7...

Win % - .444
Avg. Score - 99
Avg. margin win - 23
Avg margin loss - (24)

Brent and Ben replicated their win/loss record over the next six games as their first six (3-3 and 4-2), while Sean's got even worse and went 1-5.

Brent had a really crazy outlying week 9 last year, where he scored 172 points... If we will remove this week from the sample size our average score goes down to 95 and margin of victory to 12.

• The ability to win by a decent margin of victory is better indicator of future performance than the score, if that makes sense. You need to be winning big, not just squeaking by. 
• Teams taper off in high scores over the next six weeks- which correlates with the real NFL league's factors such as: fatigue, teams having more time information and film to use to prepare, injury, etc. 
• No team outscored their opponents by more in the weeks 7-12 than 1-6 (this is excluding Brent's massive week 9 win and score)
• You'll most likely get what you got....

So Danny and Jaime will go 4-2 again and will sit at 8-4, a perfect position to make the playoffs...