Stock Talk

This year has been historic. The S&P 500 has been over 2,000 points for most of the year. Thanks to OPEC basically giving the US the bird, oil has almost hit 11 year lows. China has been pouring money back into its volatile markets to keep the burning house from caving in. Debt problems arose again in Greece and even closer to home in Puerto Rico. Finally, gains in the market have been erased due to the anticipated Fed hike, the first in 10 years.

The stock market is a dangerous game to play if you do not have a strategy. One of the most common and oldest strategies is buying low and selling high. To identify a stock to buy, i.e. a value buy verse a stock that is overvalued, can be assessed using fundamental analysis. This is the type of stuff that the traditional retail investor will do.

First, you must ask yourself, does the company make money? Is it profitable, and if so, how does it compare to its peers? This can be done by looking at revenue and net income. Second, they will look at ratios, like price to earnings, return on equity, and future growth. Price to earnings is the dollar amount an investor must put in to get a dollar back.  Return on equity reveals the portability of the company based on how much money or equity a shareholder must put in. Investors will compare these metrics them side by side and try to understand the story behind the numbers.

Fortunately for us all of our "companies" or "stocks" are in the same industry and make money the same way - its fantasy football, bruh. Using fundamental analysis is going to help us determine whether Kaeptivating is a buy or is Persian Lives Matter a sell. See the below metrics and how we will convert business to fantasy. Which is a dangerous game and one that Draft Kings and Fanduel are fighting. This is obviously simplified and probably a waste of time. I should also note that these comparisons aren't completely transferable...

Revenue - Points Scored

Net Income - Points Scored v Points Against

P/E Ratio - Points / Wins

Return on Equity - Wins / Waiver Wire Moves 

Future Growth - Average Week to Week Change

Revenue - Points Scored 
This is fairly straightforward. You want to be above the league average, the red vertical line, not below the average. This chart just shows the raw ability to score. Like many companies that can make lots and lots of money it doesn't necessarily translate to "wins". This is the most basic, but still helpful metric to determine if a team is a buy or a sell. You can easily eliminate Jesse, Scott K, Caleb, and Christie, but circle Brent, Ben, Scott H, Sean, Dan, and John (just to name a few). I should point out the production of Ben, who was second overall in scoring, yet he missed the playoffs. We need further metrics to narrow it down. 

Net Income - Points Scored v Points Against

Rarely do we see multiple companies directly square off and offer the same product and we get to see the actual plus / minus in that matchup. Its not like Apple is facing off with Windows one week and then moves on to IBM the next. But this can help us see what teams are rising above their given matchups week in and week out. For instance, while Dan doesn't generate a ton of revenue his team is great at beating out his opponent. Or take Ben, who was second in revenue, but is barely in the black - or green in this case. 

Both Brent and Sean have been in the top four in the last two metrics. 

P/E Ratio - Points / Wins

This "P/E Ratio" is total points divided by wins. This is showing the cost of a win. You don't want to be spending too much for a win. That is a bad strategy. So if we assume a point is worth a dollar it would cost you ~853 to get a win with Jesse's team. This is rough picture of a team's efficiency. Take for instance the regular season's leader in wins, Brent, his cost per win is the lowest at 142.33. I know this isn't the best comparison, but it does show an interesting look at what a win is worth. You don't want to be spending more than 250 a game. 

Return on Equity - Wins / Waiver Wire Moves

This is unlike the others in that it shows how well a team drafted. I simply took the number of wins and divided by the number of waiver wire moves. I understand that you may not have started the player you picked up, but a decision was made that your roster was lacking and you needed to pick someone up. I gave numbers for just a few teams, as I did in the last chart, to help clear the clutter and show some highs and lows. Sean made just seven moves all year and got nine wins. It was working for him! This isn't perfect as Jesse made just two moves and got two wins. It's not perfect, but it does further explain the story of the team. Scott K for instance made 15 moves, but those didn't translate to wins. You would not want to invest your hard earned cash into his team!

The most moves made was 35 by me. This translated eight wins. I did not draft well and had to go back to the wire early and often. This diluted earnings for my shareholders, but I got to the playoffs. 

Future Growth - Average Week to Week Change

I took the averages of the changes from week to week. This is really a measure of volatility.You can see that Cameron and Jesse had the highest here. Cameron had some ridiculously high marks.  On the opposite side is Sean who was actually negative, which shows that his team never had a breakout week. Brent's is also low. I think this goes to show that consistency is important to a successful season. Can have earnings all over the place... 

Miscellaneous
The final chart is known as a candlestick graph. This shows the lowest score for each manager, the first week score, latest score (week 13), and the high. 

Let me know what your thoughts are. 

The Championship Rounds

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

All year long it has been Brent and Sean leading the pack at number one and two. Fantasy is full of luck and surprises so I am surprised that these two teams are meeting in this week's championship game. All it takes is one bad week or one player not pulling his weight for a team to lose. That is why we play week in and week out; you just never know.

As it stands as of this exact moment in time, Yahoo predicts that Brent will win, by just over 10 points. His advantages are his QB, RBs, and DEF. Which is three of the five positions which is not good for Sean. Lets look at each position. Brent's guys are going to highlighted in green and Sean's players will be in red. 

QB breakdown: Both teams QBs, Palmer and Manning, are having stellar years and are top ten fantasy QBs (each has thrown 32 TDs), but are slated to start and face decent defenses. Palmer is coming off his worst fantasy performance last week and will look to bounce back at home vs the Packers. He hasn't had stellar historical outings against a Rodger led Packers, going 1-1 and has thrown 4 TDs and 6 INTs in just two games. Maybe the third time is the charm? 

Losing Odell Beckham is definitely going to hurt the deep throws for Eli Manning, who has accounted for 40% of his TDs and almost 36% of his passing yards. While he does like check down and go to his RBs you can replace Odell. His history against the Vikings is not bright: going 2-4 and a TD/INT ratio of 4/11. 

Who wins this matchup? Brent 

RBs: Right now the biggest question mark is why Hightower getting the start for Mustache salad. He is getting more touches than Spiller and is facing a lack luster defense in Jacksonville, but has had relatively few games under his belt. However, he had a 15 point game against Tampa, which is pretty much the same team as Jacksonville, right? Plus, the Yahoo algorithms are pretty high on him projecting him to score over 13 points. 

Speaking of favorable match-ups, Abdullah is facing one of the worst teams in the league, my San Francsico 49ers. I think this could be a bigger day for him than current projected. I think Murray will have a nice outing against a Chargers team that has said goodbye to both its playoff chances and city. 

Finally, Freeman is facing the red hot Panthers, who held him to a season low of just over five points. This is interesting to me because the Falcons seem to always start great and fall horrifically at the end. Its a burning ship and he hasn't been that been consistently impressive since week 3 through 9.  

Currently Brent has an eight point advantage here, but this has the potential to be much different on both spectrums. I may have already given away where I would place my bet, but I can see this matchup much more favorable for Sean. 

Who wins this matchup? Push

DEF: Denver has been one of the best defensive teams in the league and has had some BIG games this year. They face a Cincy team that is without their Red Rifle QB and are starting AJ McCarron. I can see Denver taking advantage of McCarron and scoring big. Baltimore's defense isn't the defense you were used to seeing a few years ago. They have been pedestrian at best and face the potent Pittsburgh Steelers. Look for Big Ben to attack vertically with Brown and Bryant. 

Who wins this matchup? Brent 

Other notable notes: The TE matchup could be key here with Gronk and Walker. Both players can put up big numbers. 

As far as the Kicking game, I can see Crosby getting quite a few chances to kicking from distance against a stout Cardinals team. On the other side Gano has had some monster games, but I just don't see Atlanta being difficult to score on...

The WRs I am most interested is Sanders who will be getting even more looks from Osweiler based on his monster 31 point performance last week. 

Who ya got? This is a tough call. I think we finally have the two best teams in the league facing each other. Both teams put up solid numbers last week at 119. However, I think this comes down to explosiveness and this is something I have got on Sean about most of this season. I take Brent, but I think its going to be really close. 

THIRD PLACE

Fitting that two Rookies meet in the Bronze matchup. These teams stats are almost identical, with Dan having the edge in regular season +/- differential at 254 v 184. Jamie finished the regular season a little stronger with points scored, but Dan has beaten his Yahoo projections seven times, three more than Jamie. 

The biggest question for Jamie is: who do I start at QB? With the number one and two players in Newton and Brady, he is a pickle. Newton has just been unreal the past few weeks (scores the last three weeks 46, 31 - against Atlanta, 50). Brady has been solid as well, but hasn't been like Newton. He did put up 34 against the Jets in Week 7 and is projected to hit ~28. 

Dan has placed his bets heavily on the Pats Jets game, with three of his players in that game. Decker and Marshall hope that Fitzpatrick can continue to surprise and get them the ball. 

CONSOLATION BRACKET

Look, you and I both know that winning this is about as cool as winning tickets to a 76ers game... that you have to pay the surcharge for... The hottest team in the bracket is Cameron's Wataaaaah! Eliminating the best team that never was last week was huge. He is on three game win streak and is looking to obtain some hardware. All Day Some Days is projected to win and has beaten his projections eight times. 

This game comes down to the Seattle v St. Louis game. If Russell wilson can continue to play out of his mind and get the ball to Baldwin and Lockett (all three play for Wataaaaah!) he will capture the W. 

Separation Sunday

27 So the servants of the householder came and said unto him, Sir, didst not thou sow good seed in thy field? from whence then hath it tares?

28 He said unto them, An enemy hath done this. The servants said unto him, Wilt thou then that we go and gather them up?

29 But he said, Nay; lest while ye gather up the tares, ye root up also the wheat with them.

30 Let both grow together until the harvest: and in the time of harvest I will say to the reapers, Gather ye together first the tares, and bind them in bundles to burn them: but gather the wheat into my barn.

Matthew Chapter 30. Parable of the Wheat and the Tares. 

The great day of the harvest has commenced and the bundles are being gathered to burn. The first casualties leading up to the championship was In Russ We Trust and Mystery Meat. Both these teams were on borrowed time and were easy to identify as pretenders rather than the stuff champions are made of... wheat. 

Championship Bracket: Round I 

In Russ We Trust is harder to see as a tare, but the numbers behind his previous 8-5 record show that this was bound to happen. In his Week 7 win, he goes off for a total of 139+ of the backs of David Carr (32), McFadden (25 - his highest of the year), and Stefon Diggs (18 - who? exactly). In his Week 9 Win he reaches an even higher total at 142 pts with Antonio Brown blowing up (40 - he is capable of doing this often), Carr putting in a solid performance (33), and Randle Cobb decides to show up(19 - he hasn't been above 10 since then). Then in his Week 10 Win he again gets 130+ pts with A. Brown playing ball (31), Cooks lighting it up (26 - he's had three 20+ games), and Carr (23) doing what he is supposed to do. This was his peak. He went 5-2 from Weeks 7-13. He was bound to fall again. This week he would get back to his roots, becoming the plant that was planted long ago. Reaping as it were what he sowed. Prior to his peak in Week 7, he was 3-3, who had scored below 75 twice. He has the third highest standard deviation following Cameron and Ben, both teams who didn't make the playoffs. 

Mystery Meat on the other hand is easy to see as a fraud. He has beaten his projected score just six times all season and three of those times were the last three weeks. This is even more insightful as he has only been projected to score over 100 twice. This is a team that outdid itself and couldn't keep pace with the Rolling Gazelems. Injuries played a part (Dalton left in the 1st Qtr.), but the Gazelems were primed for this. They saw this win coming a long way off. 

Preview of the Championship Bracket: Round II

Mustache Salad v Persian Lives Matter 

Mustache Salad RBs look to back in the swing of things, with Eddie Lacy finally showing up. Although, Devonta Freeman and the Falcons are playing terrible...However, with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald going up against the less than stingy Philly Defense. This will be a challenging matchup for Persian Lives Matter, who have a less than spectacular RB crew and has to decide between Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Brady and Newton are ranked 1 and 2.  

Kaeptivating v Rolling Gazelems 

This matchup may come down injuries. Kaeptivating will benefit greatly if Gronk comes back (*UPDATE* he was back this evening and played nicely) and Rolling Gazelems with Marshawn Lynch. There are some holes for both teams. Kaeptivating WRs core has been less than sensational and the team is trending downwards. Rolling Gazelems, as mentioned before, needs a solid fill in at the RB position. 

The Consolation Bracket

Its only a matter of time before Cobra Kai and All Day Some Days meet in the final. My unsolicited advice to All Day Some Days: Get off the burning ship that is the Atlanta Falcons and PLAY MARIOTA! Not in Week 15, but 16.

Both of these teams are currently in the top five of scoring and strength of schedule. Excluding this past week, which was a bye, both teams are averaging over 100 pts/game. 

Week 12 and Team Reviews

Team reviews are done alphabetically, expect the two teams that didn't make the playoffs. But first...

12 Straight! Going on 13.
The streak is over! In the toilet bowl the 0-12 Luchesse's Cousin defeated the 2-11 StraitOuttaGronkton to get their first win. Looks like kicking it in Colorado City really helped Jesse figure out his managerial woes. We will be covering his team later on in the post where we will explore how terrible this year has been.

11 Straight! Going on 12
We all doubted him. We all thought Steve couldn't do it. He has been doubted his whole life. I remember when he tried out for the leading role in junior high musical to be a jock I doubted him. Boy did he prove me and the entire population of a hick town wrong. You can sing and dance, put on make-up, and lead a play and not do any of that very well... He did it again! He beat the streaking comet that we call Brent or as some people call him, "LOCO PENDEJO".  I should say that 11 straight is nothing to barf on.

Way to go Steve!


Ben - Cobra Kai (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 31.8
Strength of Schedule: 1
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Wataaaaah!

Q1: The first quarter of this season put this team in a hole that was difficult to overcome. Averaging just 96 points over the first four games led to 1-3 record as he faced the second most difficult schedule over that length of time.
Q2: The following quarter he got some relief as he had the 4th easiest schedule, but also was the second highest scoring, averaging over 120 pts a game. However, he went 2-2 as he faced Mustache Salad in Week 7 and laid an egg in Week 8.
Q3: This haas been this team's best, averaging 116 pts/game, with a low of just above 100. He has gone 3-1, despite having the most difficult schedule.

This is the best team that never was. He had the ability to really put up some big numbers, but costly bad performances led to a season of regret. He is the only team to have scored above 140 three times and was just behind Brent in scoring over 120 at six times (Brent was seven times). Timing is everything in fantasy football, dancing, and asking your wife if you can spend a week in Cabo with your friends. Ben lacked the timing and it costed him dearly.

He enters the consolation bracket at as the number one seed and is leading the league in both weighted and moving averages at 126.62 and 119.63.

Brent - Mustache Salad (11-2)
Current Power Ranking: 1
Average Margin of Victory: 21.4
Strength of Schedule: 5
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Quiddity of Luck

Q1: Since losing Week 1, Brent has't looked back. He led the league in scoring and had the fourth most difficult schedule. This quarter was his most inconsistent, as his standard deviation was at almost 19. His high of 143 in week 3 is still his best mark.
Q2: More of the same, only he went 4-0. His standard deviation came down significantly as he posted marks with in the 120-130 range. This was his best quarter YTD, as he again led the league in scoring.  
Q3: His opponents got weaker as he had the seventh most difficult schedule, or the seventh easiest schedule - how ever you want to look at it. His performance also declined as he was third in scoring. 

Just when I thought this team would decline they would get better. Stringing 11 straight is no joke. Make no mistake, this is a legit team. Sure luck played a part in it. It probably paid a part in you breathing right now. You could have been unlucky and gone to Chiptole this last month and gotten sick and died... but you didn't. What the law of averages and studies on luck show is that there will be a return to normalcy over time. His two losses were just that... a return to earth. He is the obvious frontrunner, but anyone can beat anyone in this cruel game. 

Caleb - Bayo'wolf (5-8)
Current Power Ranking: 12
Average Margin of Victory: 18.7 
Strength of Schedule: 6
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Persian Lives Matter

Q1: His best four game streak so far as he beat his projected score twice.... Something he hasn't done since. Week 3 he posted his highest score YTD at just over 130. He went 2-2 vs the 5th easiest schedule. 
Q2: The decline for this team begins. While he went 2-2 he was the second worst in scoring and faced the sixth most difficult schedule.
Q3: Further decline as he faced the third most difficult schedule and his team improved marginally. He goes 1-3 and averages just over 72 pts/game. His +/- total was at whopping -122. Put a fork in it; this turkey is done. 

Despite facing a more challenging schedule this team didn't find ways to improve. At a 4-4 record going into the third quarter Caleb had a chance to make the playoffs, but his team didn't get better. His descent into oblivion looks just like a child on playground slide who is out of his depth. Who knew fantasy could be so damning. 

He is the 6th seed in the consolation bracket and faces a confident Quiddity of Luck, who just stopped the number one team last week. 

Cameron - Wataaaaah! (5-8)
Current Power Ranking: 9
Average Margin of Victory: 24.3
Strength of Schedule: 2
Current Win Streak: 1, beat Cobra Kai

Q1: Was shown some love as he went 3-1, which was one of the best starts in the league. He faced tough competition as his +/- was almost at negative 10. 
Q2: His team actually improved, scoring the third most points, but he also had the third most difficult schedule and went 1-3. He was almost at +35 points. This inflated score was due to his ridiculous league record high of 172 points. Without this score he would have been the second worst in scoring..
Q3: Back to reality with an 0-4 stretch. He faced solid competition, but it was his worst series. 

The improvement year over year for this team is simply incredible! Overall he has had the second most difficult schedule and has won more games in his first four games than all year last year. 

As he defeated blood this past week, he will have to do so again, as he faces mokes-a-lot as he is the fifth seed in the consolation bracket. So, he must ask himself, "Can a house divided stand?" 

Christie - mokes-a-lot (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 11
Average Margin of Victory: 12
Strength of Schedule: 8
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Mystery Meat 

Q1: This was her best stretch and one she will look back on and wish she could have replicated over and over. She put up the 4th most points and faced decent competition (6th most difficult schedule) and was able to muster out a 2-2 record. Nothing to scoff at as she averaged 103 pts/game. Her next two quarters would not be as kind.
Q2: While still able to go 2-2 she faced easier competition, but failed to improve her scored as it declined by 4%. 
Q3: Her worst performance of the year. Averaging just over 68 pts/game, a reduction of 30%. This team wanted to be anywhere else besides the field of play as she went a total +/- of -72. 

And yet, after a serious decline, she had an opportunity in the final games to secure a playoff spot, even ruin the chances of another. She was unable to do so. I have a feeling that more of the same is coming as her sweetie pie will crush her dreams of hoisting the consolation trophy. 

Are you even still reading this????

Dan - Rolling Gazelems (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 31.3
Strength of Schedule: 14
Current Win Streak: 2, last win over Kaeptivating

Look, going quarter by quarter is getting taxing, and I doubt you care that much. Here is the summary: The Rolling Gazelems have faced a very easy schedule - overall the easiest - but were able to be at the top five in scoring two of the three qtrs. Their 2nd qtr was their best as they averaged 116 pts/game and were +98.06. After going 2-2 in their first four games they have gone 7-2. Nice!

This team is just above the league average in average pts scored a game and is trending downward compared to both league averages and medians in moving averages. Their most recent score of 116 is a bright spot, but its the first time in three weeks that they got over 100 and beat their projected score. 

He faces the weakest seed in the first round of the playoffs in Mystery Meat. 

David - Mystery Meat (8-5)
Current Power Ranking: 7
Average Margin of Victory: 30.5
Strength of Schedule: 9
Current Win Streak: 4, last win over mokes-a-lot

You aren't reading, so I will spare you most of the details. However, I will tell you that over the past three games I am surprising myself. I have beaten my projected scores by an avg. 25 pts. Thats pretty good! Unfortunately, I don't think I can keep it up. I am just happy I made it to the playoffs!

Good as of late.. but can that last? I worked for Toby Keith.

Jamie - Persian Lives Matter (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 8
Average Margin of Victory: 27
Strength of Schedule: 13
Current Win Streak: 1, beat Bayo'wolf

Q1: Do you care? Honestly, do you? Tell me and I will revisit this.... OKAY. I'll give you some tidbits. This was a solid starting point. He went 3-1 with the second easiest schedule, but he was smoking teams as he was +77.86. 
Q2: More of the same. He improved his scoring by ~8% and was +79.78 and went 3-1. He did benefit from facing weaker competition, but he made the most of it. 
Q3: His worst stretch as he went 2-2 and his production went down by over 15% and only was +14. 

After having one of the most favorable schedules, he faces the toughest matchup in the first round of the championship bracket in In Russ We Trust, who is looking very good as of late... You can read about it in his section if you care. I'm guessing you don't.


John - All Day Some Days (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 27.8
Strength of Schedule: 3
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to In Russ We Trust 

Q1: A 1-3 start really hurt this playa. He wasn't able to really get it going or prove to me that he belonged in the conversation of "he could be around in the very end" that I have on a weekly basis with the Paul from downstairs at work. Paul and I both knew it, John. 
Q2: He improved though. His production went up by 12% and even faced the second most difficult schedule and scrapped his way to 3-1 record. His lone loss and frankly the inflated "strength of schedule" came from week a week 5 beat down at the hands of Ben who put up 158. Without this his S.O.S would have been like 10 or something. 
Q3: With a chance, a real chance to turn his team into an all day, all days team, he didn't! His team faced stout competition and went 2-2. 

In the final week he had an OUTSIDE chance to make the playoffs. He couldn't. It is good he gets a bye in the consolation bracket to rethink his strategy and his life goals. Prove me and Paul wrong, John. Do it. I dare you. 


Scott - In Russ We Trust (8-5)
Current Power Ranking: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 29.3
Strength of Schedule: 4
Current Win Streak: 1, beat All Day Some Days

I don't know if you read this blog either... so... I'm gunna give you an overview. This team has been all over the map with HIGH standard deviations and a difficult schedule, they've managed to get into the playoffs. When it mattered, they showed up. This final qtr they went 3-1 (previous qtrs they went 2-2 in each) and were one of the top scoring teams in the league. 

This team is well above league averages and medians in scoring and looks to have rebounded in the final stretch. His scoring swings are of concern, but comparing his team vs Jamie looks like this: 

Which basically shows the advantage to Scott. 

Sean - Kaeptivating (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 25.9
Strength of Schedule: 12
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Rolling Gazelems

The crazy thing here is the consistency this team has been able to do week after week, quarter after quarter and the numbers show that. He has had the lowest standard deviation all year and has been in the bottom three every quarter. He has averaged just around 110 pts/game in each qtr and is averaging just over 107 on the year. He has beaten his proections 10 times and only missed them three times...His most recent loss was his worst performance and the first time he registered a score below 100. 

In all this consistency is the knock I have had on this team, the inability to put up the big numbers. Of the playoff teams in the championship bracket, only two haven't scored above 130. Mystery Meat and Kaeptivating. That isn't company you want to keep. 

Last but certainly, not least. 

Steven - Quiddity of Luck (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 10
Average Margin of Victory: 24.5
Strength of Schedule: 10
Current Win Streak: 2, most recent win over Mustache Salad 

Q1: He would never match his output in week 3 of 146. This team seemed to struggle to really get some consistency as their first four weeks they had a standard deviation of 34. He faced the middle of pack competition, but only averaged 98 pts/game. 
Q2: With production falling even lower, he didn't even have a game over 100 in the next four games, but was able to go 2-2. 
Q3: Despite improving by 13% he faced the second most difficult stretch and went 1-3. 

He ended the season with a bang, but it was a little too late for him. He has a favorable matchup in Bayo'wolf, who is trending in the opposite direction. You'll see that Caleb has beaten his projected score just two times, while Steven has done that five times... and of those five times, he beat it by 10+ pts, Caleb has done that just once.