Projecting the likelihood of meeting the projection

I've wondered to myself: How valuable is Yahoo's algorithm showing my projected score? It is obviously more sophisticated than something I could do, but how reliable is it? A fair question to ask as I utilize this tool often to see where I can improve and if I should even check my app on Sunday.

BUT the most important thing to realize before we go down this road is this - Fantasy Football is probably about 95% luck - one injury, one player emerges, a whole season is changed.

What does the data show?

Between the 2014 data and the 2015 data, I have tracked whether or not a manager has beat or missed their projected score 406 times. A decent sample set.

For 2014 and 2015 Years:
~47%% of the time, players beat their projected score.
~53% of the time, players miss their projected score.
And of those times they miss their score, ~43% of the time they will miss the mark by at least 10 points.

The numbers vary quite a bit per year:

2014
Beat: 44%
Missed: 56%
If Missed, miss by 10+: 57%

2015
Beat: 51%
Missed: 49%
Missed by 10+: 25%

What does this mean? Don't plan on hitting your score more often than not, and the chances of you missing by a lot is high. The Yahoo project score is more accurate than having Hambre pick your lineup.

I think 2015 projected score was more accurate because there was less talent on each team. In 2014 it was a smaller league and you could have multiple guys who were supposed to perform at high levels, but didn't. Like I said, mismanaging talent.

2016 data supports this theory, although there are only 30 scores recorded so far.

2016
Beat: 37%
Missed: 63%
Missed by 10+: 36%

-- UPDATE --
I wrote this blog post late at night and in bed. It's not my strongest work, but I do think it is interesting that basically its a 50-50 chance that you'll hit your score. But when you miss, you miss big.

POWER RANKINGS

I'm only going to show the top four teams... cause otherwise it would be 50% of the league... I probably should only look at the top three.

According to my simple formula:

1) Steven - 3-0. Leading the league in scoring and is 89 on the year. 

2) Ben - A bad week 3 costed him, but he's nipping at Steven's heel in the way too early to tell power ranking...

3) Sean - I was surprised by this one, but he has had the toughest schedule to date. It's a stupid formula..

4) Brent - He could easily be #3. He is third in +/- at +26

Week 3 Recap

3-0! A Proven Project!

"The best part about being three and 'O' is the chance to go four and 'O'." - Steven, Manager of TheBlairWlashProject

Steven wasted no time in his press conference after his third straight win, by overcoming an underperforming squad in League Founder, as he looked forward to next week. "The best part about being three and 'O' is the chance to go four and 'O'," he said at the post game presser. This streaking team has matched the best start of any team to date. Ben's Cobra Kai squad started 3-0 in the 2014 season, but was not able to make it four in a row. "Look, we are beating our projected score on average by ~16% and smoking our opponents by almost 30 points on average. I don't think we will let up any time soon."

Steve may be right, as his team faces the lowly Russell's athletics this next week. Russell's athletics, managed by Scott, is back from vacation, but is coming back to a broken home. With the team's very namesake, Russell Wilson, suffering an injury we will see what kind of heart and guts this team is made of. They desperately need a big boost as they are scoring ~81% of projected points for the first three weeks. Perhaps the spark Scott is looking for can come from Le'Veon Bell, who makes his debut this week. Hold your breath!

A glass ceiling doesn't come down all at once... all the time... but it can...

Could this be the start of the take over! Don't question their stamina, because Christie and Maggie are here to stay! With a resounding comeback performance by both teams, you can only hope this is the beginning of a new era. 

Christie led all scores with 147.94 - the second best score all year - which was a dramatic 70% increase over last week's dismal posting of 86 points. She hopes this wasn't an anomaly, as she scored ~47% more than her projected score. Either way, it is something to build off of as she faces an inflated record and hollow team in the Cheeto Stain. 

After being dissected by Dr. Sean last week, Maggie rebounded nicely with a tight win over the #2 Yahoo ranked Cobra Kai.  While it is the most narrow victory this year, just over a point, a victory boosted the moral of the team and they celebrated at Dave and Buster's. 

What's wrong with 2-1? Nothing. It's early.

Let's list them, in no particular order: Mustache Salad, Cheeto Stain, Cobra Kai, and League Founder. 

The week over week jump for Brent was not as crazy as Christie's, but it was still 40% increase and 40% more than projected. The first two weeks he scored at least 90% of his projected score. This isn't the team of last year, despite being 2-1 at this same juncture, he was averaging 124 a game in 2015. This year? Almost 115.

Ben is second in overall scoring, but had a rough week this week. He has been projected to score the most in these first three weeks and has only missed the mark once, which was this past week. He scored just 92% of his projected. 1.08 is the only difference between Steven and Ben. And that Steven has scored about 16 more points over these three weeks. 

After the League Founder wrapped up their game, John stormed into the presser with stat sheet crumpled up in hand and shouted, "I demand to see a graph of some kind. I can't read numbers and make sense of them." The fourth year coach has always been outspoken, but this took his notoriety to the next level. "Fundamentally, I don't agree with the presentation of these 'stats', John continued as he waved his arms around in the air. "This is football, man. It's not you know... math and stuff." It was an interesting insight on how he manages his team. 

I wanna see a graph?!

The below charts says it all for JW and Sean, who also doesn't read this blog. So....

Weighted Moving Average is a four week metric. Not available yet, as we haven't played four weeks.

Week 2 Recap

KAEPTIVATING AND COBRA KAI TAKES NO PRISONERS! They posted score of 158.12 and 146.96! Geez. The crazy thing is that this isn't a PPR league. These kind of scores are outrageous.

Kaeptivating has a solid team. Yeah, they rebounded in a monster way, improving their score by almost 66% week over week, but if you look at his roster is littered with names with big potential and some surprises. Huh? What am I saying? Read the following:
Cam Newton, despite his "fashion" has the potential to be the fantasy MVP. He can throw the deep ball and run. That's a double plus. We all know the consistency of Julio Jones. If you don't, then maybe listen to a podcast or do whatever the hell it is you do, besides pay attention to fantasy football. He's got Jordy Nelson (A-Rog fav), Kelvin Benjamin (doubling up on Cam's targets!), Travis Benjamin (SD's #1 now), etc. I can literally get away with saying etc in that past sentence because he has a solid bench. BUT the biggest surprise to me is Melvin "Now I'll show up" Gordon. Don't think I forgot last year when I drafted him. Guy was a dog! But now, especially with the injury to Danny Woodhead, the guys is the feature back! He's a dawg.

Let's not get too excited though, right? Sean is just a 1-1 team. Let's talk about a team that is 2-0 and will be ranked as the number two team in the league, Cobra "Mother Freaking" Kai. This is not a new story for Ben, as he always has competitive teams. I caught up with him briefly over Skype and he said, "Last year it was disappointing. A losing season and all. It was tough, but I'm in a much better place now. I feel like this is our year." I applaud what he has done in his first two weeks. He has solid wins. It should not be a surprise to anyone. However, there are some major concerns on the bench due to injuries and when L. Bell's suspension ends, his work horse in D. Williams might have to be put out to pasture. 

Who is number one though?! Who wanted to back up his week 1 high score and showed that he isn't just another burnt out cigarette in the ash tray that is this league, is my response. Steven. The wonder man. The wonder bread. The coolest thing since sliced bread. The man who will slice open your defense. The guy who needs no defense... Actually, his defense was pretty damn solid this week. It early in the season, but you heard it here first, he isn't going to make the playoffs. I did no analysis other than looking at his roster and was like, "nah. This ain't it." But I'm pretty sure I do that every year. I hope he proves me wrong. If he does, I'll shave my head. No questions asked. 

I've been really positive so far, so let's get negative.

Rounding out the top half is myself and JW, aka "The Founder" aka "OG" aka "Clickity Clack, Click Clack". John had a really impressive win the first week, but he didn't get the same production from the same players. If he starts his other QB, WR1, and TE he is scoring over what he did last week, which was 130+. He has players, homie. He is a player. He was unavailable for comment on being a player. Guess he doesn't check twitter... His last tweet was him promoting the 'dumb ways to die' app in 2015.

Me? I have had the weakest schedule. No denying it. I'm not good.

Scotty must be really taking his vacation seriously by asking his team to also not show up. He's scored less than 83 points both weeks despite being projected to score over 100 both weeks. Week 1 he scored 77% of his projected score and 75% this week. On the flip side, I have benefited greatly from team's seriously underperforming. Doesn't help his cause that A. Peterson is out... He did pick up I. Crowell from CLE who had a monster week.

I'm 0-2, what do I do?!

Looking at you:

Scott

Maggie

Christie

Cameron

Panic. Re-invent your team. Blow it up.

What do you mean?

In the 2014 season, when Brent joined the league, his team started 0-2. He then won his next three and went 4-1 over the next five games. Understanding that this is a small sample set, but we've only kept stats for three years (including this year). Brent went to work on the waiver wire, retooling his team. Listen, this is possible. As stated in the first post, this year is the year of the manager. There is more talent hanging out as free agents and owners have to be smarter managing their teams.

Maggie has made some smart moves, as she picked up L. Blount from the Pats this week, who had a 19+ week. She just picked up the Salsa Dancer, Victor Cruz, so things could be looking up as she has a lot of holes to fill before her ship sinks to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. When you are starting Pitts #3 or #4 WR target in LaFell, you know you got problems.

GET ON THE WAIVER WIRE, CHRISTIE! Are you really just waiting till week 4 to get going? C'mon sis! Z. Miller is a nice placeholder until Gronk comes back, but you must know something I don't know cause you have a roster full of no names.

Cameron. I got nothing man. You have the names. Woodhead going down hurts, but Hill is a solid RB2. This is a team that is just behind the curve. 

Week 1 Recap

Half of the teams are 1-0, the other half are 0-1. I got some more hot takes coming right at ya!

1. We have 10 teams in the league this year. We had 14 last year and 12 the year before that. What does that mean? It means that there are more talent to be had. However, it can also lead to distractions and dilemmas of who to play and who to sit. Look at your bench, I guarantee you had someone that outperformed your starter.
2. Do not touch Cleveland right now. Look, until this QB situation plays out, you're not going to find anyone like Gary Barnige. Give it another couple weeks. Sit anyone that has CLE by their name. 
3. The dashboard is... broke. I need to do some serious remodeling. Apologies. Not that any of you actually look at this. 
4. Move of the week was Steven picking up Spencer Ware off the waivers who ended up scoring 27+. To put that in context, last year teams scored over 140 just nine times and it was only done by six teams. This was the fifth all-time for Steven. 

What will this season hold for us?

Around week 8 or 9 most of us will realize that we won't win. All the time, all the effort, was for naught. How did you get there? Well, it starts with self doubt. It then becomes fear. And then, in sweet and fantastic beauty, it become failure. That is how 90% of the managers of the JJJL league will be because of how they started. If you draft poorly, you will fail.

Yahoo will rank our drafts and say mean stuff, like, "Nice job drafting four running backs, dumbass". I expect at least a D- for me (see projected finishing places based on draft above and I actually got a B-). I am not going to even attempt to give each team grades. I know nothing about this game. This horrific game spawned from the devil himself.

What has me interested is seeing the many story lines for this upcoming season unfold like an episode of the x-files. It's gunna get weird.

1) Will Brent extend his streak to three straight silver championship fantasy football rings purchased from one the internet's e-commerce websites? This continued dominance would forever cement his place in immortality. No one can doubt his ability to scrap his way to a finals. I can't wait to see what kind of maneuvers he is going to pull. It's going to be kind of like that new Vin Diesel movie? You just hate watching it happen, but its going to crush the box office.

2) Is anyone going to come up with better names? I mean, honestly? People need to do better. I get it if it worked for you... but it hasn't really for most.. Has it? Do you keep naming the progeny of a losing horse after said horse? NO!

3) With another woman in the mix this increases the odds of having the first woman champ. Its shaping up to be historic year in the political arena. Will we see it here?

4) Ultimately, what will the future of this league be? We have seen a significant amount of turnover and missteps by myself. Makes me wonder if the fantasy football world will implode! Probably not.

5) Will a Hyde even win this league? I get the feeling that it will not happen. No person with Hyde blood has won this league. Ever.

It should be a great year!

The worst way to renew a season

Back in May I sent out a feeler email to see who would rejoin the league. It was simple, you in or out. The problem was that I left off people who were in the league the previous year... unintentionally. See, in gmail you can create groups. I had a group set up for fantasy football, but it was from the original season. I had made some revisions to it, but I hadn't added everyone on the list.

Minutes before the draft I get a text from a brother who got wind of the draft and asks, "Hey, am I in the league?"

Its locked. Nothing I can do. The table is set and my label is pronounced upon myself. I am a douche.

I can't have this kind of crap happen again!

The fact of the matter is that the league is as good as the commissioner makes it. I started off this season with less fire in my belly than a drenched beach towel. I even said that I would spend less time than I had in previous seasons (which is still true, because I put in way too much time) and that set the tone. The tone for this league.

That tone resulted in half of the league showing up for the draft. Nice.

I'm sorry guys and gals. I commit to tightening up the bolts.