Projecting the likelihood of meeting the projection

I've wondered to myself: How valuable is Yahoo's algorithm showing my projected score? It is obviously more sophisticated than something I could do, but how reliable is it? A fair question to ask as I utilize this tool often to see where I can improve and if I should even check my app on Sunday.

BUT the most important thing to realize before we go down this road is this - Fantasy Football is probably about 95% luck - one injury, one player emerges, a whole season is changed.

What does the data show?

Between the 2014 data and the 2015 data, I have tracked whether or not a manager has beat or missed their projected score 406 times. A decent sample set.

For 2014 and 2015 Years:
~47%% of the time, players beat their projected score.
~53% of the time, players miss their projected score.
And of those times they miss their score, ~43% of the time they will miss the mark by at least 10 points.

The numbers vary quite a bit per year:

2014
Beat: 44%
Missed: 56%
If Missed, miss by 10+: 57%

2015
Beat: 51%
Missed: 49%
Missed by 10+: 25%

What does this mean? Don't plan on hitting your score more often than not, and the chances of you missing by a lot is high. The Yahoo project score is more accurate than having Hambre pick your lineup.

I think 2015 projected score was more accurate because there was less talent on each team. In 2014 it was a smaller league and you could have multiple guys who were supposed to perform at high levels, but didn't. Like I said, mismanaging talent.

2016 data supports this theory, although there are only 30 scores recorded so far.

2016
Beat: 37%
Missed: 63%
Missed by 10+: 36%

-- UPDATE --
I wrote this blog post late at night and in bed. It's not my strongest work, but I do think it is interesting that basically its a 50-50 chance that you'll hit your score. But when you miss, you miss big.