We are somehow here... again

begrudgingly, the league has been renewed. i basically waiting till the last possible minute to do it.

The End

I have 10 or more posts that are just sitting in draft status! I can't believe I haven't posted them....

Here we are, at the end of another Fantasy Football season. I must admit, there was a lot of apathy on my end. I lost a bit of fire - A LOT OF FIRE. I am still trying to rekindle that passion for a game that doesn't mean a whole lot. Trying to find the deeper meaning. I'll let you know what I will find.

Let's get back to where we are and where we have come from.

A few weeks ago I would have been shocked to have not seen Sean and Brent/Ben/Steven in the finals. One of those combinations. They just seemed to have the right roster. Sean, I felt, was a sure fire. And then he goes down to a team that scored less than 55 pts in the final season game... But it is what it is and is what it isn't.

I was watching the late Sunday night game with eager eyes. And then Monday night proved to be the difference for Ben and Brent. It was finally the first matchup this year that actually meant something. Would Brent three-peat!? Or would Ben, who has been "Oh-so close" too many times, finally get his break.

Now, Ben is on the verge of taking his first Championship. Out of the shadows and will be crowned champ.

Too close to call... for now.

One of the weakest regular season teams vs one of the strongest

Week 6 Recap

The breaking point is almost upon us. This is basically when you will look in the mirror and ask yourself, "Is this worth it? Do I really care that much about playing fantasy football?". Your record will probably be the main data point you'll look to when deciding you'll turn it in for the night.

It's tough. Especially when you give it your best effort. Then there are those who don't really care. Exhibit John, who literally didn't change his lineup this week again.

The most surprising team is yours truly. At 4-2 overall I'm hanging on by a thread. I've had the fourth easiest schedule and sixth in scoring. Fishy? Maybe Yahoo doesn't want the commish to quit on accounts of having a bad record.

Back to this almost being the breaking point, there are five teams (half the league) at a 3-3 record. I would point to the projected finishes and playoff picture that Yahoo provides, but its crock! The best team doesn't always win. For example: I moved from seventh overall to third and a division leader this past week. You've got to be kidding me. It is anyone game and you can control your destiny.. sorta.

One example of this is Russell's athletics, who are one of the hottest teams right now with a three game winning streak. After starting 0-3, averaging almost 86 points, with a plus/minus differential of -51, he has completely flipped the script. He is averaging over 107 a game and with a plus/minus of 89! Part of this transformation was him hitting the waiver wire picking up Pryor, Crowell, and Michael.

This turnaround couldn't have come at a better time. Don't wait around for comeback, go out an get it. This requires some research. Some digging. It's not easy, but anything worth something isn't easy. I know Brent would agree.

Week 5 Recap

Help, I've fallen and can't get up. 

I poke fun at a lot of you. I call you out. I think its fun. 

Current Yahoo End of the Year Projections 

A Gaff!

Screenshot taken Sunday, October 9, 2016 @ 4:24 PST

Here is what we know:

John's Starting Lineup

If you have a a player that has a 'Bye' that player will not play. In fact, this is done on purpose. A 'Bye' week is part of every NFL teams schedule, every year. 

If you have a player with the red O, that player will not play. He is out. Whether injured or suspended. He cannot play and should not be in the starting lineup. 

John had four plays in his starting lineup that had either a 'Bye' or a red O. Two WR and two RBs, a Bye and injury for both. That is not good. 

He does not have enough players on his bench to replace all of these individuals. He can replace just one of these players.

This is not good management. 

He has one viable player, Matt Jones, to put in.

Rivers can only play QB. 

John's Bench

Diggs has been ruled out of the game. 

Bennett (who you should start from now on and should have started [ANOTHER GAFF]) can only play TE. 

And Philadelphia can only play defense. 

-- PERHAPS --

John, the league founder, knew all of this and was taking a Bye week for himself. 

Brady doing Brady Things

CLEVELAND, OHIO - Tom Brady returned from his four game suspension and made quick work of the Browns, tallying 406 yards through the air with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and most importantly notching a win. "There was plenty of rust," Brady said after the game. "I still have a long ways to go. Giselle expects more out of me." But the real story was the battle of his more famous distant cousins, Ben and Cameron, who were in attendance to watch him play.

This weeks matchup marks the fifth regular season time they have squared off. They have split the first four games, with Ben winning both match-ups in the '14-'15 season by an average of just under 20 points a game. Cameron took both games in the '15-'16 season averaging just under 13 points a game. This will be the only time they face off in the '16-'17 regular season. Tensions were extremely high when I was Skyping with Cameron earlier this morning. 

"I work too hard. For it to come to this. I just... I don't even know how to say it. But I gotta win. I can't emphasize enough how important this game it to me. I literally meant what I just said." 

Ben was a little more laid back when we were on a google hangout just 10 minutes ago. 

"I've had more success in the post season, that's all that matters. Look, you've got to understand something, I couldn't care less than I care right now. The fact that we have to talk about this supposed brother rivalry has me more fired up than the actual match-up." 

With both teams at 2-2 this season, this game does mean quite a bit. However, it is known that one brother will be 3-2, with the other will be 2-3, in both this season and in the rivalry. That is a fact. 

Did you know?

There are other pages on this blog? Yeah! Its been like this for over a year....

DESKTOP:

MOBILE:

The downward arrow on the same bar as 'Home' will display the same pages as above once clicked.

Week 4 Recap

 * Updated *

October 2, 2016 - Texting with Scott

9:22 AM MST 

Jeremy maclin or Terrell prior? 

Jimmy graham or gronk?

Isiah Crowell or Christine Michael?

I need answers!

9:50 AM MST

Prior. Graham. Crowell.

But who really knows!

12:43 PM MST

You're projected to win right now

7:15 PM MST *NEW VOICEMAIL*

October 2, 2016 - Texting with Steven

1:49 PM MST

Dude I am going to lose to Scott

Yup. Looks bleak. 

I mean Hopkins!! No Points!!

8:25 PM MST

Big Ben is amazing

You owe him this won

win

100%

0.04

Remember when Lakers has Gary Payton and Karl Malone? And they were playing the Spurs in the playoffs? Manu still had hair.. Well, Derek Fisher hit that incredible shot with four tenths of a seconds left on the clock to win the game. It has been determined that its physically impossible to score a basketball with 0.4 seconds on the clock... Well, Scott lost by less than 0.4.... He lost be less than anyone else has in the history of fantasy football. He lost by less than 

In 2015, Cameron beat Caleb by 0.10 (Read the post here, see the record here). This is fantasy football, not sprinting or swimming! The only shred of hope Scott can have is this disclaimer that is on the summary of every matchup:

This has been enlarged for your viewing

4-0 and 0-4

No team has ever started 4-0. This is uncharted territory. He has a real chance to go 5-0 when he faces Maggie. 

Two other teams have started 0-4. Caleb in 2015 and Jesse in 2016. Caleb lost five in a row, but almost made it to .500 by the end of the season. Jesse's team was a horrible team and lost 12 straight. He quit at the end of the year.

Other Notes --

There were a lot of close games this week. Tip of the cap to the winners. Many games when into Monday night hanging in the balance. Don't beat yourself up too much. 

Also, I'm not able to post embedded links on this blog. Any ideas why?

-- Update --

A 4-0 start will have to wait. The Fantasy gods have smiled on Scott and have awarded him a stat correction of 0.8.

As of 10.3.2016

As of 10.4.2016

Projecting the likelihood of meeting the projection

I've wondered to myself: How valuable is Yahoo's algorithm showing my projected score? It is obviously more sophisticated than something I could do, but how reliable is it? A fair question to ask as I utilize this tool often to see where I can improve and if I should even check my app on Sunday.

BUT the most important thing to realize before we go down this road is this - Fantasy Football is probably about 95% luck - one injury, one player emerges, a whole season is changed.

What does the data show?

Between the 2014 data and the 2015 data, I have tracked whether or not a manager has beat or missed their projected score 406 times. A decent sample set.

For 2014 and 2015 Years:
~47%% of the time, players beat their projected score.
~53% of the time, players miss their projected score.
And of those times they miss their score, ~43% of the time they will miss the mark by at least 10 points.

The numbers vary quite a bit per year:

2014
Beat: 44%
Missed: 56%
If Missed, miss by 10+: 57%

2015
Beat: 51%
Missed: 49%
Missed by 10+: 25%

What does this mean? Don't plan on hitting your score more often than not, and the chances of you missing by a lot is high. The Yahoo project score is more accurate than having Hambre pick your lineup.

I think 2015 projected score was more accurate because there was less talent on each team. In 2014 it was a smaller league and you could have multiple guys who were supposed to perform at high levels, but didn't. Like I said, mismanaging talent.

2016 data supports this theory, although there are only 30 scores recorded so far.

2016
Beat: 37%
Missed: 63%
Missed by 10+: 36%

-- UPDATE --
I wrote this blog post late at night and in bed. It's not my strongest work, but I do think it is interesting that basically its a 50-50 chance that you'll hit your score. But when you miss, you miss big.

POWER RANKINGS

I'm only going to show the top four teams... cause otherwise it would be 50% of the league... I probably should only look at the top three.

According to my simple formula:

1) Steven - 3-0. Leading the league in scoring and is 89 on the year. 

2) Ben - A bad week 3 costed him, but he's nipping at Steven's heel in the way too early to tell power ranking...

3) Sean - I was surprised by this one, but he has had the toughest schedule to date. It's a stupid formula..

4) Brent - He could easily be #3. He is third in +/- at +26