Stock Talk

This year has been historic. The S&P 500 has been over 2,000 points for most of the year. Thanks to OPEC basically giving the US the bird, oil has almost hit 11 year lows. China has been pouring money back into its volatile markets to keep the burning house from caving in. Debt problems arose again in Greece and even closer to home in Puerto Rico. Finally, gains in the market have been erased due to the anticipated Fed hike, the first in 10 years.

The stock market is a dangerous game to play if you do not have a strategy. One of the most common and oldest strategies is buying low and selling high. To identify a stock to buy, i.e. a value buy verse a stock that is overvalued, can be assessed using fundamental analysis. This is the type of stuff that the traditional retail investor will do.

First, you must ask yourself, does the company make money? Is it profitable, and if so, how does it compare to its peers? This can be done by looking at revenue and net income. Second, they will look at ratios, like price to earnings, return on equity, and future growth. Price to earnings is the dollar amount an investor must put in to get a dollar back.  Return on equity reveals the portability of the company based on how much money or equity a shareholder must put in. Investors will compare these metrics them side by side and try to understand the story behind the numbers.

Fortunately for us all of our "companies" or "stocks" are in the same industry and make money the same way - its fantasy football, bruh. Using fundamental analysis is going to help us determine whether Kaeptivating is a buy or is Persian Lives Matter a sell. See the below metrics and how we will convert business to fantasy. Which is a dangerous game and one that Draft Kings and Fanduel are fighting. This is obviously simplified and probably a waste of time. I should also note that these comparisons aren't completely transferable...

Revenue - Points Scored

Net Income - Points Scored v Points Against

P/E Ratio - Points / Wins

Return on Equity - Wins / Waiver Wire Moves 

Future Growth - Average Week to Week Change

Revenue - Points Scored 
This is fairly straightforward. You want to be above the league average, the red vertical line, not below the average. This chart just shows the raw ability to score. Like many companies that can make lots and lots of money it doesn't necessarily translate to "wins". This is the most basic, but still helpful metric to determine if a team is a buy or a sell. You can easily eliminate Jesse, Scott K, Caleb, and Christie, but circle Brent, Ben, Scott H, Sean, Dan, and John (just to name a few). I should point out the production of Ben, who was second overall in scoring, yet he missed the playoffs. We need further metrics to narrow it down. 

Net Income - Points Scored v Points Against

Rarely do we see multiple companies directly square off and offer the same product and we get to see the actual plus / minus in that matchup. Its not like Apple is facing off with Windows one week and then moves on to IBM the next. But this can help us see what teams are rising above their given matchups week in and week out. For instance, while Dan doesn't generate a ton of revenue his team is great at beating out his opponent. Or take Ben, who was second in revenue, but is barely in the black - or green in this case. 

Both Brent and Sean have been in the top four in the last two metrics. 

P/E Ratio - Points / Wins

This "P/E Ratio" is total points divided by wins. This is showing the cost of a win. You don't want to be spending too much for a win. That is a bad strategy. So if we assume a point is worth a dollar it would cost you ~853 to get a win with Jesse's team. This is rough picture of a team's efficiency. Take for instance the regular season's leader in wins, Brent, his cost per win is the lowest at 142.33. I know this isn't the best comparison, but it does show an interesting look at what a win is worth. You don't want to be spending more than 250 a game. 

Return on Equity - Wins / Waiver Wire Moves

This is unlike the others in that it shows how well a team drafted. I simply took the number of wins and divided by the number of waiver wire moves. I understand that you may not have started the player you picked up, but a decision was made that your roster was lacking and you needed to pick someone up. I gave numbers for just a few teams, as I did in the last chart, to help clear the clutter and show some highs and lows. Sean made just seven moves all year and got nine wins. It was working for him! This isn't perfect as Jesse made just two moves and got two wins. It's not perfect, but it does further explain the story of the team. Scott K for instance made 15 moves, but those didn't translate to wins. You would not want to invest your hard earned cash into his team!

The most moves made was 35 by me. This translated eight wins. I did not draft well and had to go back to the wire early and often. This diluted earnings for my shareholders, but I got to the playoffs. 

Future Growth - Average Week to Week Change

I took the averages of the changes from week to week. This is really a measure of volatility.You can see that Cameron and Jesse had the highest here. Cameron had some ridiculously high marks.  On the opposite side is Sean who was actually negative, which shows that his team never had a breakout week. Brent's is also low. I think this goes to show that consistency is important to a successful season. Can have earnings all over the place... 

Miscellaneous
The final chart is known as a candlestick graph. This shows the lowest score for each manager, the first week score, latest score (week 13), and the high. 

Let me know what your thoughts are. 

The Championship Rounds

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

All year long it has been Brent and Sean leading the pack at number one and two. Fantasy is full of luck and surprises so I am surprised that these two teams are meeting in this week's championship game. All it takes is one bad week or one player not pulling his weight for a team to lose. That is why we play week in and week out; you just never know.

As it stands as of this exact moment in time, Yahoo predicts that Brent will win, by just over 10 points. His advantages are his QB, RBs, and DEF. Which is three of the five positions which is not good for Sean. Lets look at each position. Brent's guys are going to highlighted in green and Sean's players will be in red. 

QB breakdown: Both teams QBs, Palmer and Manning, are having stellar years and are top ten fantasy QBs (each has thrown 32 TDs), but are slated to start and face decent defenses. Palmer is coming off his worst fantasy performance last week and will look to bounce back at home vs the Packers. He hasn't had stellar historical outings against a Rodger led Packers, going 1-1 and has thrown 4 TDs and 6 INTs in just two games. Maybe the third time is the charm? 

Losing Odell Beckham is definitely going to hurt the deep throws for Eli Manning, who has accounted for 40% of his TDs and almost 36% of his passing yards. While he does like check down and go to his RBs you can replace Odell. His history against the Vikings is not bright: going 2-4 and a TD/INT ratio of 4/11. 

Who wins this matchup? Brent 

RBs: Right now the biggest question mark is why Hightower getting the start for Mustache salad. He is getting more touches than Spiller and is facing a lack luster defense in Jacksonville, but has had relatively few games under his belt. However, he had a 15 point game against Tampa, which is pretty much the same team as Jacksonville, right? Plus, the Yahoo algorithms are pretty high on him projecting him to score over 13 points. 

Speaking of favorable match-ups, Abdullah is facing one of the worst teams in the league, my San Francsico 49ers. I think this could be a bigger day for him than current projected. I think Murray will have a nice outing against a Chargers team that has said goodbye to both its playoff chances and city. 

Finally, Freeman is facing the red hot Panthers, who held him to a season low of just over five points. This is interesting to me because the Falcons seem to always start great and fall horrifically at the end. Its a burning ship and he hasn't been that been consistently impressive since week 3 through 9.  

Currently Brent has an eight point advantage here, but this has the potential to be much different on both spectrums. I may have already given away where I would place my bet, but I can see this matchup much more favorable for Sean. 

Who wins this matchup? Push

DEF: Denver has been one of the best defensive teams in the league and has had some BIG games this year. They face a Cincy team that is without their Red Rifle QB and are starting AJ McCarron. I can see Denver taking advantage of McCarron and scoring big. Baltimore's defense isn't the defense you were used to seeing a few years ago. They have been pedestrian at best and face the potent Pittsburgh Steelers. Look for Big Ben to attack vertically with Brown and Bryant. 

Who wins this matchup? Brent 

Other notable notes: The TE matchup could be key here with Gronk and Walker. Both players can put up big numbers. 

As far as the Kicking game, I can see Crosby getting quite a few chances to kicking from distance against a stout Cardinals team. On the other side Gano has had some monster games, but I just don't see Atlanta being difficult to score on...

The WRs I am most interested is Sanders who will be getting even more looks from Osweiler based on his monster 31 point performance last week. 

Who ya got? This is a tough call. I think we finally have the two best teams in the league facing each other. Both teams put up solid numbers last week at 119. However, I think this comes down to explosiveness and this is something I have got on Sean about most of this season. I take Brent, but I think its going to be really close. 

THIRD PLACE

Fitting that two Rookies meet in the Bronze matchup. These teams stats are almost identical, with Dan having the edge in regular season +/- differential at 254 v 184. Jamie finished the regular season a little stronger with points scored, but Dan has beaten his Yahoo projections seven times, three more than Jamie. 

The biggest question for Jamie is: who do I start at QB? With the number one and two players in Newton and Brady, he is a pickle. Newton has just been unreal the past few weeks (scores the last three weeks 46, 31 - against Atlanta, 50). Brady has been solid as well, but hasn't been like Newton. He did put up 34 against the Jets in Week 7 and is projected to hit ~28. 

Dan has placed his bets heavily on the Pats Jets game, with three of his players in that game. Decker and Marshall hope that Fitzpatrick can continue to surprise and get them the ball. 

CONSOLATION BRACKET

Look, you and I both know that winning this is about as cool as winning tickets to a 76ers game... that you have to pay the surcharge for... The hottest team in the bracket is Cameron's Wataaaaah! Eliminating the best team that never was last week was huge. He is on three game win streak and is looking to obtain some hardware. All Day Some Days is projected to win and has beaten his projections eight times. 

This game comes down to the Seattle v St. Louis game. If Russell wilson can continue to play out of his mind and get the ball to Baldwin and Lockett (all three play for Wataaaaah!) he will capture the W. 

Separation Sunday

27 So the servants of the householder came and said unto him, Sir, didst not thou sow good seed in thy field? from whence then hath it tares?

28 He said unto them, An enemy hath done this. The servants said unto him, Wilt thou then that we go and gather them up?

29 But he said, Nay; lest while ye gather up the tares, ye root up also the wheat with them.

30 Let both grow together until the harvest: and in the time of harvest I will say to the reapers, Gather ye together first the tares, and bind them in bundles to burn them: but gather the wheat into my barn.

Matthew Chapter 30. Parable of the Wheat and the Tares. 

The great day of the harvest has commenced and the bundles are being gathered to burn. The first casualties leading up to the championship was In Russ We Trust and Mystery Meat. Both these teams were on borrowed time and were easy to identify as pretenders rather than the stuff champions are made of... wheat. 

Championship Bracket: Round I 

In Russ We Trust is harder to see as a tare, but the numbers behind his previous 8-5 record show that this was bound to happen. In his Week 7 win, he goes off for a total of 139+ of the backs of David Carr (32), McFadden (25 - his highest of the year), and Stefon Diggs (18 - who? exactly). In his Week 9 Win he reaches an even higher total at 142 pts with Antonio Brown blowing up (40 - he is capable of doing this often), Carr putting in a solid performance (33), and Randle Cobb decides to show up(19 - he hasn't been above 10 since then). Then in his Week 10 Win he again gets 130+ pts with A. Brown playing ball (31), Cooks lighting it up (26 - he's had three 20+ games), and Carr (23) doing what he is supposed to do. This was his peak. He went 5-2 from Weeks 7-13. He was bound to fall again. This week he would get back to his roots, becoming the plant that was planted long ago. Reaping as it were what he sowed. Prior to his peak in Week 7, he was 3-3, who had scored below 75 twice. He has the third highest standard deviation following Cameron and Ben, both teams who didn't make the playoffs. 

Mystery Meat on the other hand is easy to see as a fraud. He has beaten his projected score just six times all season and three of those times were the last three weeks. This is even more insightful as he has only been projected to score over 100 twice. This is a team that outdid itself and couldn't keep pace with the Rolling Gazelems. Injuries played a part (Dalton left in the 1st Qtr.), but the Gazelems were primed for this. They saw this win coming a long way off. 

Preview of the Championship Bracket: Round II

Mustache Salad v Persian Lives Matter 

Mustache Salad RBs look to back in the swing of things, with Eddie Lacy finally showing up. Although, Devonta Freeman and the Falcons are playing terrible...However, with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald going up against the less than stingy Philly Defense. This will be a challenging matchup for Persian Lives Matter, who have a less than spectacular RB crew and has to decide between Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Brady and Newton are ranked 1 and 2.  

Kaeptivating v Rolling Gazelems 

This matchup may come down injuries. Kaeptivating will benefit greatly if Gronk comes back (*UPDATE* he was back this evening and played nicely) and Rolling Gazelems with Marshawn Lynch. There are some holes for both teams. Kaeptivating WRs core has been less than sensational and the team is trending downwards. Rolling Gazelems, as mentioned before, needs a solid fill in at the RB position. 

The Consolation Bracket

Its only a matter of time before Cobra Kai and All Day Some Days meet in the final. My unsolicited advice to All Day Some Days: Get off the burning ship that is the Atlanta Falcons and PLAY MARIOTA! Not in Week 15, but 16.

Both of these teams are currently in the top five of scoring and strength of schedule. Excluding this past week, which was a bye, both teams are averaging over 100 pts/game. 

Week 12 and Team Reviews

Team reviews are done alphabetically, expect the two teams that didn't make the playoffs. But first...

12 Straight! Going on 13.
The streak is over! In the toilet bowl the 0-12 Luchesse's Cousin defeated the 2-11 StraitOuttaGronkton to get their first win. Looks like kicking it in Colorado City really helped Jesse figure out his managerial woes. We will be covering his team later on in the post where we will explore how terrible this year has been.

11 Straight! Going on 12
We all doubted him. We all thought Steve couldn't do it. He has been doubted his whole life. I remember when he tried out for the leading role in junior high musical to be a jock I doubted him. Boy did he prove me and the entire population of a hick town wrong. You can sing and dance, put on make-up, and lead a play and not do any of that very well... He did it again! He beat the streaking comet that we call Brent or as some people call him, "LOCO PENDEJO".  I should say that 11 straight is nothing to barf on.

Way to go Steve!


Ben - Cobra Kai (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 31.8
Strength of Schedule: 1
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Wataaaaah!

Q1: The first quarter of this season put this team in a hole that was difficult to overcome. Averaging just 96 points over the first four games led to 1-3 record as he faced the second most difficult schedule over that length of time.
Q2: The following quarter he got some relief as he had the 4th easiest schedule, but also was the second highest scoring, averaging over 120 pts a game. However, he went 2-2 as he faced Mustache Salad in Week 7 and laid an egg in Week 8.
Q3: This haas been this team's best, averaging 116 pts/game, with a low of just above 100. He has gone 3-1, despite having the most difficult schedule.

This is the best team that never was. He had the ability to really put up some big numbers, but costly bad performances led to a season of regret. He is the only team to have scored above 140 three times and was just behind Brent in scoring over 120 at six times (Brent was seven times). Timing is everything in fantasy football, dancing, and asking your wife if you can spend a week in Cabo with your friends. Ben lacked the timing and it costed him dearly.

He enters the consolation bracket at as the number one seed and is leading the league in both weighted and moving averages at 126.62 and 119.63.

Brent - Mustache Salad (11-2)
Current Power Ranking: 1
Average Margin of Victory: 21.4
Strength of Schedule: 5
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Quiddity of Luck

Q1: Since losing Week 1, Brent has't looked back. He led the league in scoring and had the fourth most difficult schedule. This quarter was his most inconsistent, as his standard deviation was at almost 19. His high of 143 in week 3 is still his best mark.
Q2: More of the same, only he went 4-0. His standard deviation came down significantly as he posted marks with in the 120-130 range. This was his best quarter YTD, as he again led the league in scoring.  
Q3: His opponents got weaker as he had the seventh most difficult schedule, or the seventh easiest schedule - how ever you want to look at it. His performance also declined as he was third in scoring. 

Just when I thought this team would decline they would get better. Stringing 11 straight is no joke. Make no mistake, this is a legit team. Sure luck played a part in it. It probably paid a part in you breathing right now. You could have been unlucky and gone to Chiptole this last month and gotten sick and died... but you didn't. What the law of averages and studies on luck show is that there will be a return to normalcy over time. His two losses were just that... a return to earth. He is the obvious frontrunner, but anyone can beat anyone in this cruel game. 

Caleb - Bayo'wolf (5-8)
Current Power Ranking: 12
Average Margin of Victory: 18.7 
Strength of Schedule: 6
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Persian Lives Matter

Q1: His best four game streak so far as he beat his projected score twice.... Something he hasn't done since. Week 3 he posted his highest score YTD at just over 130. He went 2-2 vs the 5th easiest schedule. 
Q2: The decline for this team begins. While he went 2-2 he was the second worst in scoring and faced the sixth most difficult schedule.
Q3: Further decline as he faced the third most difficult schedule and his team improved marginally. He goes 1-3 and averages just over 72 pts/game. His +/- total was at whopping -122. Put a fork in it; this turkey is done. 

Despite facing a more challenging schedule this team didn't find ways to improve. At a 4-4 record going into the third quarter Caleb had a chance to make the playoffs, but his team didn't get better. His descent into oblivion looks just like a child on playground slide who is out of his depth. Who knew fantasy could be so damning. 

He is the 6th seed in the consolation bracket and faces a confident Quiddity of Luck, who just stopped the number one team last week. 

Cameron - Wataaaaah! (5-8)
Current Power Ranking: 9
Average Margin of Victory: 24.3
Strength of Schedule: 2
Current Win Streak: 1, beat Cobra Kai

Q1: Was shown some love as he went 3-1, which was one of the best starts in the league. He faced tough competition as his +/- was almost at negative 10. 
Q2: His team actually improved, scoring the third most points, but he also had the third most difficult schedule and went 1-3. He was almost at +35 points. This inflated score was due to his ridiculous league record high of 172 points. Without this score he would have been the second worst in scoring..
Q3: Back to reality with an 0-4 stretch. He faced solid competition, but it was his worst series. 

The improvement year over year for this team is simply incredible! Overall he has had the second most difficult schedule and has won more games in his first four games than all year last year. 

As he defeated blood this past week, he will have to do so again, as he faces mokes-a-lot as he is the fifth seed in the consolation bracket. So, he must ask himself, "Can a house divided stand?" 

Christie - mokes-a-lot (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 11
Average Margin of Victory: 12
Strength of Schedule: 8
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Mystery Meat 

Q1: This was her best stretch and one she will look back on and wish she could have replicated over and over. She put up the 4th most points and faced decent competition (6th most difficult schedule) and was able to muster out a 2-2 record. Nothing to scoff at as she averaged 103 pts/game. Her next two quarters would not be as kind.
Q2: While still able to go 2-2 she faced easier competition, but failed to improve her scored as it declined by 4%. 
Q3: Her worst performance of the year. Averaging just over 68 pts/game, a reduction of 30%. This team wanted to be anywhere else besides the field of play as she went a total +/- of -72. 

And yet, after a serious decline, she had an opportunity in the final games to secure a playoff spot, even ruin the chances of another. She was unable to do so. I have a feeling that more of the same is coming as her sweetie pie will crush her dreams of hoisting the consolation trophy. 

Are you even still reading this????

Dan - Rolling Gazelems (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 31.3
Strength of Schedule: 14
Current Win Streak: 2, last win over Kaeptivating

Look, going quarter by quarter is getting taxing, and I doubt you care that much. Here is the summary: The Rolling Gazelems have faced a very easy schedule - overall the easiest - but were able to be at the top five in scoring two of the three qtrs. Their 2nd qtr was their best as they averaged 116 pts/game and were +98.06. After going 2-2 in their first four games they have gone 7-2. Nice!

This team is just above the league average in average pts scored a game and is trending downward compared to both league averages and medians in moving averages. Their most recent score of 116 is a bright spot, but its the first time in three weeks that they got over 100 and beat their projected score. 

He faces the weakest seed in the first round of the playoffs in Mystery Meat. 

David - Mystery Meat (8-5)
Current Power Ranking: 7
Average Margin of Victory: 30.5
Strength of Schedule: 9
Current Win Streak: 4, last win over mokes-a-lot

You aren't reading, so I will spare you most of the details. However, I will tell you that over the past three games I am surprising myself. I have beaten my projected scores by an avg. 25 pts. Thats pretty good! Unfortunately, I don't think I can keep it up. I am just happy I made it to the playoffs!

Good as of late.. but can that last? I worked for Toby Keith.

Jamie - Persian Lives Matter (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 8
Average Margin of Victory: 27
Strength of Schedule: 13
Current Win Streak: 1, beat Bayo'wolf

Q1: Do you care? Honestly, do you? Tell me and I will revisit this.... OKAY. I'll give you some tidbits. This was a solid starting point. He went 3-1 with the second easiest schedule, but he was smoking teams as he was +77.86. 
Q2: More of the same. He improved his scoring by ~8% and was +79.78 and went 3-1. He did benefit from facing weaker competition, but he made the most of it. 
Q3: His worst stretch as he went 2-2 and his production went down by over 15% and only was +14. 

After having one of the most favorable schedules, he faces the toughest matchup in the first round of the championship bracket in In Russ We Trust, who is looking very good as of late... You can read about it in his section if you care. I'm guessing you don't.


John - All Day Some Days (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 27.8
Strength of Schedule: 3
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to In Russ We Trust 

Q1: A 1-3 start really hurt this playa. He wasn't able to really get it going or prove to me that he belonged in the conversation of "he could be around in the very end" that I have on a weekly basis with the Paul from downstairs at work. Paul and I both knew it, John. 
Q2: He improved though. His production went up by 12% and even faced the second most difficult schedule and scrapped his way to 3-1 record. His lone loss and frankly the inflated "strength of schedule" came from week a week 5 beat down at the hands of Ben who put up 158. Without this his S.O.S would have been like 10 or something. 
Q3: With a chance, a real chance to turn his team into an all day, all days team, he didn't! His team faced stout competition and went 2-2. 

In the final week he had an OUTSIDE chance to make the playoffs. He couldn't. It is good he gets a bye in the consolation bracket to rethink his strategy and his life goals. Prove me and Paul wrong, John. Do it. I dare you. 


Scott - In Russ We Trust (8-5)
Current Power Ranking: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 29.3
Strength of Schedule: 4
Current Win Streak: 1, beat All Day Some Days

I don't know if you read this blog either... so... I'm gunna give you an overview. This team has been all over the map with HIGH standard deviations and a difficult schedule, they've managed to get into the playoffs. When it mattered, they showed up. This final qtr they went 3-1 (previous qtrs they went 2-2 in each) and were one of the top scoring teams in the league. 

This team is well above league averages and medians in scoring and looks to have rebounded in the final stretch. His scoring swings are of concern, but comparing his team vs Jamie looks like this: 

Which basically shows the advantage to Scott. 

Sean - Kaeptivating (9-4)
Current Power Ranking: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 25.9
Strength of Schedule: 12
Current Win Streak: 0, lost to Rolling Gazelems

The crazy thing here is the consistency this team has been able to do week after week, quarter after quarter and the numbers show that. He has had the lowest standard deviation all year and has been in the bottom three every quarter. He has averaged just around 110 pts/game in each qtr and is averaging just over 107 on the year. He has beaten his proections 10 times and only missed them three times...His most recent loss was his worst performance and the first time he registered a score below 100. 

In all this consistency is the knock I have had on this team, the inability to put up the big numbers. Of the playoff teams in the championship bracket, only two haven't scored above 130. Mystery Meat and Kaeptivating. That isn't company you want to keep. 

Last but certainly, not least. 

Steven - Quiddity of Luck (6-7)
Current Power Ranking: 10
Average Margin of Victory: 24.5
Strength of Schedule: 10
Current Win Streak: 2, most recent win over Mustache Salad 

Q1: He would never match his output in week 3 of 146. This team seemed to struggle to really get some consistency as their first four weeks they had a standard deviation of 34. He faced the middle of pack competition, but only averaged 98 pts/game. 
Q2: With production falling even lower, he didn't even have a game over 100 in the next four games, but was able to go 2-2. 
Q3: Despite improving by 13% he faced the second most difficult stretch and went 1-3. 

He ended the season with a bang, but it was a little too late for him. He has a favorable matchup in Bayo'wolf, who is trending in the opposite direction. You'll see that Caleb has beaten his projected score just two times, while Steven has done that five times... and of those five times, he beat it by 10+ pts, Caleb has done that just once. 

Week 12

The race for the final playoff spots is HEATING UP. This week was quirky as we saw the league's worst, Luchesse's Cousin almost beat mokes-a-lot, which would have ended her hopes of getting into the playoffs. Cobra Kai kept his playoff hopes alive with a crucial win over All Day Some Days.

Did I mention that Jesse almost won? It was his best score of the season! Huzzah! Amazing.

Current Playoff picture:

1. Brent 11-1 
2. Sean 9-3
3. Dan 8-4
4. Jamie 8-5
5. Scott 7-5
6. David 7-5

I emphasize that the number 5 and 6 seeds are open..sorta. 

Hanging around at 6-6 are: 

• Ben - faces Cameron, who, uh, well.... Ben can totally make the playoffs 
• John - faces Scott, who does not want to lose this last week. Both teams will have to pull out all the stops! 
• Christie - YES! Remember when she had the inside lane at getting into the playoffs? Well, she is back here to do the impossible! And who does she face? Yours truly! 

DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

the top six lose and donald trump becomes president

Brent - doesn't matter... he has the number one seed locked up.
Sean - also really doesn't matter, despite going to 9-4 where other teams could match him in record, but he has put up enough points to stay ahead of the curve, i.e. the teams that have scored above him have worse records. Remember, total points scored is the first tie breaker. Then it is pistols at dawn.
Dan - if he were to lose he goes to 8-5 and would drop in the seeding, however, he has the playoffs locked up.
Jamie- goes to 8-5 as well, but this record is sufficient to make the playoffs.

This is where things get interesting... sorta

Scott and Me - are in similar situations. Both must win out to stay in the hunt for the greatest of all hardware. If they win out (8-5 record), its game over, but going to 7-6 will open up the gates for the 6-6 teams, mentioned above. The key difference is that Scott has a significant point advantage over John - XX right now. So, Scott could miss the playoffs by losing to John AND by losing by > than XX. Something stupid like that.

My situation is much more delicate. If I were to lose, I would almost certainly be out. I do hold a scoring advantage over Christie, who also happens to be my matchup this week (by XX points). It is not likely that she would replace me, but it could happen. Me losing would most likely give Ben the final spot as he has the most favorable matchup this week.

What will probably happen:

Brent wins, because why wouldn't he?

Sean pulls out a close win over Dan

Jamie somehow plays the wrong guy again (he has had guys go for 30+ on his bench the past two weeks) and loses to Caleb. Goes (8-5).

Scott beats John, who decided to call me out and will suffer the consequences of his actions.

My hot streak ends at the hands of my lone sister. Ben beats Cameron and captures the sixth seed.

Ben getting in is a huge win for us in the consolation bracket!

_________________________________________________________________________________

I want to note that we will be having an award ceremony forthcoming. Please pay Brent the $10 for awards. We will have numerous awards based on the regular seasons performance and playoff finishes.
_________________________________________________________________________________

Week 11

"... To tell you the truth, I don't know if you are special. Only you gunna know that, when your time is right. But, you gotta work hard. I swear to God, if you're not going to do it, I'm out." - Rocky, Creed 

This week was one of the worst performing weeks. We had three teams score below 60 points this week. Dismal. I'm chalking up this due to Thanksgiving, traveling, and moving... AND I'm moving on... Not quitting on you yet.

The most competitive game of the week was Ben v Scott, which was decided by just 1.68 points. It was a battle of RBs, with Scott's Rawls exploded for 43+ and Ben's Martin 30+. Luckily for Scott his WRs picked up the slack for his other players... something that I had not predicted - "Scott's biggest challenge comes in week 11 vs Ben. I don't think he can win that game as he will face WR issues then."  Ben didn't have that same kind of support...The road for Ben to the playoffs for is uphill, but is still possible and very doable. He has rising John and a falling Cameron to close out this season.

Of some intrigue is John taking over the 6th spot with a win over Steven. His final two games will not be as easy.. He faces Ben (as stated above - just want to make sure you got that) and Scott. Neither Yahoo nor I think he can win out and secure a playoff seed. Prove us wrong, John.

Finally, in the battle of the Rookie's, Jamie got the better of Dan in a less than competitive match... They have split their meetings, but could meet each other in the playoffs for a illustrious rubber match (it won't be a Morales v Barrera type of trilogy). I am sure everyone will be watching for this...

Playoff Watch: 

A reminder, I had the following projections for the playoffs:
1) Brent (12-1)
2) Jamie (10-3)
3) Dan (9-4)
4) Sean (9-4)
5) Ben (8-5)
6) Scott (8-5)

Obviously, I didn't get it all right... After this week Yahoo projects it to be:
1) Brent (12-1)
2) Sean (10-3)
3) Scott (9-4)
4) Jamie (8-5)
5) Dan (8-5)
6) Ben (7-6)

Heard from around the league:

"I don't want to get into why my team is underperforming... We have had a very difficult stretch here" - Steven. It's true, his team has had the toughest schedule in Q3. His team missed their projected score by 24+ points or just ~77% of what they were supposed to do.

"I lost? Hmmm. Don't care! I'm breathing in the Hong Kong air!" - Danny. He didn't bother to sub in Sproles for an injured Lynch. Who, btw, will be out for a minute. Lynch has been a disappointment this year, only scoring 10+ in four of his nine appearances. 

"Manning? %$&* Peyton Manning!" - Christie. Manning isn't your only problem... you had two dudes in your lineup that were on byes. Her team is the second worst team scoring in Q3 - she has scored < 90 the past three weeks. 

"Brent's time is coming... and I will be the one to take him down." - Scott H. No love loss in this intense rivalry... Looks like there will be some quotes to put up in the locker room for Brent. Scott's confidence is at an all time high - he is enjoying his most productive stretch all year and is averaging 129 pts/game. 

"Jesse told me this league was difficult. Well, it hasn't really been that way. I will win this league." - Jamie. He has the lowest average projected score of teams currently in the playoff picture, with just over 95, and has only beaten that mark significantly (> 10 pts) three times. John, who has averaged a projected score of 98.39 has beaten his projected scores by a significant margin five times.

What if Luck had been last year's Luck?

Since I am playing StraitOuttaGronkton this week, I thought it would be interesting to play the 'what if game'. What if Andrew Luck was the Andrew Luck of last year? My original thesis was that S.O.G. would have benefited greatly. I was dead wrong...Lets take a look at the numbers.

Last year, Andrew Luck scored 418.29 fantasy points over 14 weeks, which averages out to be just over 29 pts/game. That is solid work. Unfortunately for S.O.G. and the rest of the world, no one can predict injuries, which Luck has sustained this year. However, lets ignore that fact and pretend that Luck was healthy all year and put up around 29 a game, regardless of the opponent. I recognize that this is a simplistic approach, but it could shed a light on how much impact one player has on a team.

Week 1: S.O.G. won easily. Changing Luck's score would have just increased the win margin.

Week 2: Loss 74.9 to 105.6. Luck scored 15.5. Giving back the delta of last year's average and this years score wouldn't have changed the outcome of this game either.

Week 3: Even if Luck scored the 29, it still would have been a loss.

Week 4: Luck is injured this week and the backup puts up 16 pts. S.O.G. loses by just over 2 points. Giving back the Luck average of last year would have resulted in a win.

Week 5: His starter, Flacco, puts up 28. He lost 30 points...

Week 6: Luck does score 32 points this week... but is on the bench. His starter, Flacco, scored 25. However, even if Luck was in, S.O.G. would have lost.

Week 7: Luck scores over 29... still loses.

Week 8: Even if Luck scores 29, he loses.

Week 9: See week 8 comment.

Week 10: Flacco scores over 29, he wins.

His record would have changed by just one win (3-7). He would not have benefited greatly from Luck being the old Luck.

What I did notice was the major inconsistencies of the rest of his team. Aside from his QB play, which has actually been pretty consistent, and Odell Beckham Jr., this team can't put up points. One week Watkins would have 0 and the next 14+. Bernard would score just over 5 and then the following week score 10+.  You have gotta have your other players give support.

The issues with this team go far beyond just one position.

Power Rankings

Yahoo's*

* Power Rankings based on projected points for the remainder of the season. 


Mine**
1) Brent
2) Sean
3) Scott H
4) Dan
5) Ben

**Performance as of, with no projections...

Week 10

Upset week was upon us: 

Four teams in the top ten college football rankings lost this week. 

Holly Holms destroyed the favorite Ronda Rousey.

Would it be the same for our fierce league of try hards? Almost.

If there ever was a week to shake things up the playoff race, this was the week. Just two teams managed to score over 120 pts. It also so happened that those two teams were playing each other. This was the worst week in the league since week four, as teams averaged just over 90 points a game. The past five weeks teams have been averaging 100+ a game. We hit an all time low as Jesse managed to score just over 23 pts.... 23 points.

The Upsets

There were epic upsets, most notably Scott K defeating Jamie, to break his eight game losing streak. I totally did not see this coming as I stated in last week's post, "He [Jamie] will easily dispatch Scott K (only one team hasn't)" Scott beat his projected score by ~25 points; his only other time he beat his projected scores by 20+ was his week 1 win. This was also his only other time where he eclipsed the century mark in points. While Jamie is still projected to make the playoffs (yahoo has him going 1-2 over the next three games) if he were to finish 0-3 it could knock him out of the picture. This loss could set in motion the fate already decided for him, his team, and his country.... or he will still make the playoffs. He will most likely, as stated previously in the week 9 post, and after Dan's most recent outing, beat Dan this week.

The other upset was Ben taking down Sean. I did see this coming! Finally, a correct prediction, "Sean's lack of explosive play will cost him when he plays the enigmatic Ben in week 10." I tried to warn you Sean. Should have taken my trade... Ben still has to face the hottest team in the league right now next week in Scott H, who is averaging 112 pts/game, with a weighted average 130+ pts/game. GEEZ. Call the fireman! I see my prediction of Ben finishing 4-0 being broken up this week...

The ALMOST UPSETS

We were all watching Brent and Cameron. We held our breaths. We bit our nails. Cameron is the only team to have defeated Brent and for just a brief moment it looked like it would happen again. Brent's solid players put up decent numbers, but his Denver Defense put up their worst performance of the year. However, Brent made a promise a lot time ago that Cameron didn't make. Brent made a bet - no a promise - - no an oath - no a covenant!!! that he would not bet against his Seattle Seahawks. He wouldn't do it now, not ever. He would not play Carson Palmer (ignore the fact that he did play Fitzgerald), but he played Kirk "YOU LIKE THAT?!" Cousins, who not only torched the New Orleans Saint Defense, he got Rex Ryan's brother fired!

Cameron on the other hand bet against the Hawks and didn't play Wilson. Sure, Wilson has struggled, even sucked in fantasy, but when you are playing against Brent, you gotta play Brent the way that Brent would play. You've got to cut your hand open and let the blood poor over the jersey of your favorite Seattle Seahawk - Bosworth. I think that is what it takes. So I am told.

Now, while this is a win now, we have seen close games be flipped with the stat corrections that come out on Thursday. Cameron did this to Caleb and I must note that Brent is only the winner by .84 - his lowest margin of victory.

-- UPDATE -- 

I just checked the "Stat Corrections" section and see nothing for Cameron to hold out for... Sorry.

Then you had the high scoring battle between the dead in the water holding on to hope, but she let you go Jack - Steven vs. the high flying, almost crashing into the ground, what is going to happen next? will they flame out now? its gotta be this week! Scott H. What has got to be so frustrating for Steven is that he played his best game since week 3. He rallied his troops, had a smart game plan, but didn't execute for four quarters! You gotta FINISH STEVEN! And you have to time it better... You would have been anyone else this week BESIDES Scott. Come on man, know your opponent.

I gotta commend Steven on his pick ups - his RBs specifically - C. West and J. Langford with 30+ pts a piece. Tip of the cap as well to Scott who has stayed the course with his lineup and never doubted.

I wouldn't say that Dan beating Christie was an upset, as I think Dan has the better team, but she was in the playoff picture. It was the sixth seed, which isn't sexy, but heck its the playoffs. Anything can happen in the playoffs! And this was her week to remain in the playoff hunt. It would have been hard, but after this loss? Forget about it... Dan put up his worst score of the year ~76 or whatever... Christie mustered up 36. Dang, man. Dang.

And you could have won. You should have won. Let me tell you again, Manning is done. He is toast. He is over. Drop him now. I don't care what you have to do, get that ugly mug off your roster. Any walking, breathing, starting QB is better than him. I told you he was a bad choice from day one. No one will pick that dude up off the waiver wire. No one would touch him with a ten foot pole! Secondly, if a dude is putting up solid numbers week after week - IE Michael Floyd - put him in. Now with Edleman out you don't have much of a choice... Better get hunting...

Playoff Race
Top Six, in order: Brent (9-1), Sean (7-3), Dan (7-3), Jamie (7-3), Scott (6-4), Ben (5-5).

The only team to have their playoff spot locked it Brent. The other teams above could fall out of the race. While I don't foresee that happening, it could happen. Anything could happen, right?

Ben and Scott face off this week. If Ben loses, his grasp on that final spot will be in serious trouble, with a number of teams sitting at 5-5 (John, Christie, Myself) and would have to win his way back in the picture.

Scotts's path is difficult as he plays Ben and two playoff hopeful teams the following weeks: John and Myself.

Jamie faces off against Dan this week and will then faces Sean. Who ever came up with the scheduling is awesome. The battle for the playoff seeding begins!

Sean has his homecoming week this week against Jesse, but then finishes with Jamie and Dan.

Brent? Cupcakes for his last three games. Resting his players and getting ready for the playoffs.

You wasted all this time on google sheets for.....?

YOU! I did it for you, mostly. But I really want you to be able to leverage the data provided. To better understand what is going on with your team. It will give you a high level understanding, but you will have to understand the details, and within the details comes the wins, and with the wins come the glory that you all hunger for, because the devil is in the details.

Lets use Christie's team as an example of how to leverage this worksheet.

First, if you see something that looks wrong or if you have suggestions, let me know. Also, this best viewed on desktop.

You'll notice you have your own individual spreadsheet that has a few metrics that should help you what is currently happening with your team. I am going to take you chart by chart, excluding the win loss record for your team. If you can't figure that out you have more serious problems.

Figure 1

The chart to the left (Figure 1) shows the actual weekly score for your team vs the: moving average, weighted moving average and projected points.

The moving averages (requires four week intervals) can be used to understand the scoring trend for your team. It smooths out the weekly scoring figure, which is subject to some real highs and lows - i.e. high standard deviations.

The projected score can help you better understand if you are performing at or above what Yahoo thinks your team is doing. You can see from Christie's scoring chart she is all over the map and is trending downwards. She has not be able to really keep her team consistent in scoring. She also has more often than not been meeting her Yahoo projected scores. In other words, she has an unpredictable and underperforming team.

Figure 2

 Figure 2 shows a good breakdown of how this team stacks up to the rest of the league, performance in wins/losses, total +/- of points on the year, and how difficult the overall schedule has been.

The power rankings can be better understood in this post. Christie is a 9 out 14. This is not good.

In her victories she is beating teams by 14 points and is losing by just ~12. These are close games. She is neither blowing out teams, nor being blown out. This can be further seen in the 'Total Season +/-" figure. This is simply the delta of the total points scored on the year and total points scored against.

Figure 3

Figure 3 shows the average pts scored again, the weekly moving average pts, weighted moving average pts, and the total standard deviation. Again, the moving averages show us the trend. The standard deviation shows the the variation of the scores. This better helps us understand if her scores are really ALL over the map. A 13 standard deviation is actually pretty good, but also shows us that she has never really exploded on offense.

Just like in real football, fantasy football takes four quarters. The charts to the right (Figure 4) gives us a quarter by quarter look for Christie's team. As QTR 3 has just begun, you have to take these figures with a grain of salt.

Figure 4

You can see that her team has slowed down quarter over quarter, but so has her competition, allowing her to keep at that .500 level. The trending lines also help in visualizing this change.

But how does this all compare to the competition? You can see that in the middle chart, which shows she started pretty well over the first four games, as she was 4th overall in scoring and had a reasonable schedule.

The final chart in Figure 4 further shows the percentage growth. Again, as Q3 isn't finalized the Q2-Q3 isn't finalized and can't be really looked at.

This chart helps us really understand where her team is compared to other teams, over intervals of four games. Christie has been, at best, a middle of pack team to a lower end team.

Figure 5

The final charts further compare Christie's team to the other teams in the league. As a rule of thumb you want to see green not red in the delta column. The delta column is simply the difference between Christie's metrics vs the league's average/median/leader...

I wanted to provide the league medians, in addition to the averages, to further show how her team is doing. This comparison shows how far she is truly from the middle of the pack.

Of course, you must compare yourself against the league leader. You can see that she has big gap between her scores and the leader.

Finally, the last section of Figure 5 helps understand if the team is doing better than the rest of the league in beating its Yahoo projections and how well, or how poorly, they are doing comparatively.

Look, I hope this helps. It is pretty hard to predict the outcome of any game, but these metrics can help you determining whether your down week was just a blip in the road, or if it is time to hit the panic button.

Week 9

This could be yours, maybe... or another one.

This was a super interesting week...Brent continues his dominance, Caleb decided he didn't need to set his lineup, the Brady boys rebounded, Christie ekes out a win, my 108 threshold was busted by Steven, and Scott H and Dan stayed hot. With four games left, the chase for the ultimate prize of useless pride and ring is on!

But first...just when I was about to enter promo code: 'Belly' this happened. Maybe this will put an end to all those annoying ads? Oh, you haven't seen the ads? Take a look here. And here. And here. And here. And here. OR just watch any live sporting event. Interesting that Outside the Lines did this report on the "industry" over a year ago and highlighted the amount of money being exchanged and the potential downfall of the marketplace. 

Lets get back to our league, where pain is temporary but pride is forever. 

Controversy

Brent is number one. His team is number one. His moves are number one. His luck is number one. Or was this week's victory some family colluding? Hard to say. Here are the facts: 

1) Brent had his number one WR & QB combo on byes this week - Palmer and Fitzgerald

2) His back ups were Golden Tate and T.Y. Hilton

3) Tate was also on a bye this week as well, while Hilton was considered questionable and was even expected not to play

4) Brent and Scott K executed a trade on Nov 7, which I approved, where Brent would get Watkins in exchange for Tate

5) Sammy Watkins was also battling injuries, but was expected to play

6) Tate has put up ~8 pts on a good week, but is scoring consistently

7) Watkins has scored in just three of his games this year

8) Watkins had a career game this week and put up 28.60 points

9) Had Brent not made that trade, and played Hilton, he would have lost this week to John, 119.22 to 115.28

10) Had Scott not made that trade he would have won this week against Christie

11) Christie would have been 4-4 and not in the #6 spot, but John would be in the #6 spot at 5-4

12) Brent would have had his second loss, but still remained in first and in control.

13) Scott's season is over. He's won one game..

Got all that? 

I have reached out to both Brent and Scott and have voiced my concern over what transpired. That this was an indeed honest trade and the integrity of the managers are intact. I have been reassured that this was a legit trade. That being said, the trade was a real gamble for Brent as Watkins topped out 12.60 in week 2 of this year. He has been spotty at best. I should reiterate that I approved the trade and the only reason this has drawn my attention is that Brent benefited greatly from this trade, even a win. Brent is one dammed lucky guy. 

It wouldn't be a great season without some controversy.

-- UPDATE as of 11/17/15 -- 

Sammy Watkins put up a whopping 1.70 fantasy points in week 10.
Golden Tate scored 7.70 fantasy points in week 10.
Brent is one lucky SOB.

-- -- --

Playoff Race

Currently the top six are, in order: Brent, Sean, Jamie, Dan, Scott H, and Christie.

Speaking of Christie, this week's win was huge for her and puts her on the outside lane to make it to the playoffs. While she is the #6 seed now, she faces a grueling schedule ahead. She faces Dan next week who has rebounded from injuries and is putting up over 126 pts a game over the last four weeks, with a weighted moving average of 130. She then will face Brent, Jesse, and Myself. I can see her best case scenario going 2-2 (toss up between myself and her) and worst case going 1-3 (she will most likely beat Jesse). Bold prediction: she goes 1-3 and finishes the season 6-7 and will miss the playoffs. 

Continuing to move backwards up the current seeding chain. Scott H put an absolute beating on Caleb, who has pretty much thrown in the towel. #creed. Better luck next year, right? Scott's biggest challenge comes in week 11 vs Ben. I don't think he can win that game as he will face WR issues then. He will finish the season 3-1, beating Steven, Myself, and John, but losing to Ben. Final record 8-5; seed #6. 

Dan is really coming into his own, who has won the last four of his five. His victory over Cameron put him into the playoff picture even more so and crushed Cameron's dreams of glory. That trend will continue as he will beat Christie, lose to Jamie due to Brees' bye, but beat Scott K and Sean. His receiving core looks to be very strong and Lynch will finally break out. Final record 9-4; seed #3.

I'm really high on Jamie right now. I dig unisex names and am digging the way he has played this season. Coming off his bye week to finish the rest of his season, the tune will go something like this - W, W, L, and W. He will easily dispatch Scott K (only one team hasn't), will squeeze by Dan, but fall to Sean, and then end with destroying a flailing Caleb. Final record 10-3; seed #2. 

That's right, Sean will be replaced as the second seed in the tourney. Sean's lack of explosive play will cost him when he plays the enigmatic Ben in week 10. He faces Jesse in week 11, aka a win. While he might not have the firepower, his consistency will save him in Week 12 against Jamie - as well as having Tom Brady's favorite endzone target in Gronk (Jaime will probably play Brady against the Broncos), but will cost him in week 13. So, I have it L, W, W, L. Final record 9-4; seed #4. 

As stated, oh, I dunno, like a thousand times, the #1 seed is locked up by Brent. He will finish with four straight wins against Cameron, Christie, Caleb, and Steven. Final record 12-1; seed #1. 

"But, David?," you say, "Aren't you forgetting the number five seed?" Correct you are, my astute reader. The fifth seed will be Ben. His rebound this week restored my confidence in him. He has been white hot the past four of five games. I have him finishing the season 4-0, against Sean, Scott H, John, and Cameron. Final record 8-5; seed #5. 

Here is how I think the playoff race will shake out. I see both Dan and Ben coming back down to earth after successful campaigns in the final weeks of the season. It will be a top seeded battle in the end, after a narrow win for Jamie over Scott. In the end, Brent's depth will prove to be too much. 

1	Brent
		Brent
	Bye
			Brent
4	Sean
		Sean
5	Ben
				Brent: 2x Champ
3	Dan
		Scott
6	Scott
			Jamie
2	Jamie
		Jamie
	Bye

Please note that all of these "projections" were done late at night and that's all they are... projections. Which is as good as sandpaper in an outhouse. You can use it, but you'd rather not. Here is the other disclaimer, these are all subject to change. One injury could really screw up a team.