Since I am playing StraitOuttaGronkton this week, I thought it would be interesting to play the 'what if game'. What if Andrew Luck was the Andrew Luck of last year? My original thesis was that S.O.G. would have benefited greatly. I was dead wrong...Lets take a look at the numbers.
Last year, Andrew Luck scored 418.29 fantasy points over 14 weeks, which averages out to be just over 29 pts/game. That is solid work. Unfortunately for S.O.G. and the rest of the world, no one can predict injuries, which Luck has sustained this year. However, lets ignore that fact and pretend that Luck was healthy all year and put up around 29 a game, regardless of the opponent. I recognize that this is a simplistic approach, but it could shed a light on how much impact one player has on a team.
Week 1: S.O.G. won easily. Changing Luck's score would have just increased the win margin.
Week 2: Loss 74.9 to 105.6. Luck scored 15.5. Giving back the delta of last year's average and this years score wouldn't have changed the outcome of this game either.
Week 3: Even if Luck scored the 29, it still would have been a loss.
Week 4: Luck is injured this week and the backup puts up 16 pts. S.O.G. loses by just over 2 points. Giving back the Luck average of last year would have resulted in a win.
Week 5: His starter, Flacco, puts up 28. He lost 30 points...
Week 6: Luck does score 32 points this week... but is on the bench. His starter, Flacco, scored 25. However, even if Luck was in, S.O.G. would have lost.
Week 7: Luck scores over 29... still loses.
Week 8: Even if Luck scores 29, he loses.
Week 9: See week 8 comment.
Week 10: Flacco scores over 29, he wins.
His record would have changed by just one win (3-7). He would not have benefited greatly from Luck being the old Luck.
What I did notice was the major inconsistencies of the rest of his team. Aside from his QB play, which has actually been pretty consistent, and Odell Beckham Jr., this team can't put up points. One week Watkins would have 0 and the next 14+. Bernard would score just over 5 and then the following week score 10+. You have gotta have your other players give support.
The issues with this team go far beyond just one position.
So true
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