Week 4

It was a close week for many teams in the NFL, with low scores. The same was true for our league. Weird how that correlates. There were seven games that were decided by 3 points or less, (Vikings v Broncos, Rams v Cardinals, Browns v Chargers, Jaguars v Colts, Eagles v Redskins, Raiders v Bears, Lions v Seahawks) with only one winning team hitting 30 points (Chargers). Last week in the NFL there was just one game that was decided by 3 pts or less (Colts v Titans), but the winning team scored 35.

Individual highs/lows vs league average

*After a monstrous Week 3, where eight teams beat their previous weeks score by at least 10%, only two did it this week. The league average score from Week 3 to Week 4 dropped by over 50%, from 109.53 to 87.33. The firepower that many teams enjoyed just didn't last. Only one team scored over 110 pts (John), a first time for this season.

Fours in Week 4: 

• Four teams missed their projected score by 20+ or more
• Steven -37.25, Scott H -35.89, Scott K -22.1, and Christie -20.6
• Jesse has would have beaten four other teams with his score of 80.4
• Jesse remains 0-4. He has lost be an average of 34.05 pts/game
• Sean and Brent are the only teams to beat their projected score four times aka every week
• Sean beat his by 4.01 this week
• Brent is the only manager to score of 100 in ALL four games 
• With this week's score, he moves ahead of Scott H as the league leader in scoring

Actual Average Pts v Average Projected Pts

The two games of the week I had my eyes on was Brent v Caleb and Ben v Cameron.... B v C.... British v Colonials...

Caleb made a lot of noise last week after his unexpected season high of 132.68. While Caleb had strong showings from all of his team (except Matt Stafford - 10 pts for a QB ain't going to cut it), he didn't have the breakout player that Brent had. Devonta Freeman scored a whopping 34.4 pts (he scored 38.8 last week). Freeman is playing outside of his mind. From ESPN: "According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Freeman is the first player since the merger to rush for three TDs in each of his first two career starts." This type of production cannot last, but Mustache Salad moves to 3-1 on the year and jumps into first place. And what is even scarier is the RBs on Mustache's bench - Ingram has been solid this year posting double digit scores every week and Gurley looked really good against a tough Arizona Defense.

• Both teams look to have favorable matchups this next week. Mustache faces an unpredicable Quiddity of Luck and Bayo'wolf has his homecoming against Luchess's Cousin. 

Ben made a strong move after losing his starting QB and picked up Bortles, but the fall of Big Ben would prove to only help Cameron, who has Le'Veon Bell (22.7) on his team. The RB and DEF would prove the difference in the family affair. Cameron only need bel and Carolina forced 5 turn overs and scored a TD. The real villain is Doug Martin (21.8), who I think is a total sham and ruined me last year, had himself a game for Cobra Kai. He, unfortunately, was on the bench. 

The rest of the league games were... well, kind a blah. Sure, you had the solid performance by John, but the fact that Steven one with a score of 68.76 pts v Scott K tells you all you need to know about this week. I beat Danny (unless there is a friggin stat correction of some kind) by only scoring 86 pts. I mean, Scott H score dropped by almost 60% from last week (138 to 59).  Christie went M.I.A as well (dropped by ~31%). This was a bad week for the league. However, I think we will bounce back. In 2014 we had three weeks (3, 11,15) where we averaged ~87+ pts a team, the following week after we improved by at least 8% or 6 pts. I think the low score also speaks to how difficult this league is. I commend each of you on your efforts. The road ahead is long and difficult and probably not worth it. 

I do want to point out a few managers who look tough: 

• I have mentioned Brent enough up above, but he is definitely a force to be reckoned with.
• Sean. He has never scored below 100, averages almost 110 pts/game, has the lowest st. dev., and is 3-1.
• Jaime. He hasn't said a word. Won't do a manager spotlight. I don't know if he even read this, but he looks tough. I look at few things: scoring over 100, avg score, consistency ie standard deviation, and of course record. He has lit up the score just once (120.42), scored over 100 twice, but is averaging 100 pts a game, and has one of the lowest standard deviations in the league at 14.32 (the low for context is Sean at 8.5). Most importantly he is 3-1. 
• I think Scott has a lot of firepower... He just had a rough week.

* As stat corrections happen on Oct 8, the figures provided in this post may be a little off.