The End

I have 10 or more posts that are just sitting in draft status! I can't believe I haven't posted them....

Here we are, at the end of another Fantasy Football season. I must admit, there was a lot of apathy on my end. I lost a bit of fire - A LOT OF FIRE. I am still trying to rekindle that passion for a game that doesn't mean a whole lot. Trying to find the deeper meaning. I'll let you know what I will find.

Let's get back to where we are and where we have come from.

A few weeks ago I would have been shocked to have not seen Sean and Brent/Ben/Steven in the finals. One of those combinations. They just seemed to have the right roster. Sean, I felt, was a sure fire. And then he goes down to a team that scored less than 55 pts in the final season game... But it is what it is and is what it isn't.

I was watching the late Sunday night game with eager eyes. And then Monday night proved to be the difference for Ben and Brent. It was finally the first matchup this year that actually meant something. Would Brent three-peat!? Or would Ben, who has been "Oh-so close" too many times, finally get his break.

Now, Ben is on the verge of taking his first Championship. Out of the shadows and will be crowned champ.

Too close to call... for now.

One of the weakest regular season teams vs one of the strongest

Week 6 Recap

The breaking point is almost upon us. This is basically when you will look in the mirror and ask yourself, "Is this worth it? Do I really care that much about playing fantasy football?". Your record will probably be the main data point you'll look to when deciding you'll turn it in for the night.

It's tough. Especially when you give it your best effort. Then there are those who don't really care. Exhibit John, who literally didn't change his lineup this week again.

The most surprising team is yours truly. At 4-2 overall I'm hanging on by a thread. I've had the fourth easiest schedule and sixth in scoring. Fishy? Maybe Yahoo doesn't want the commish to quit on accounts of having a bad record.

Back to this almost being the breaking point, there are five teams (half the league) at a 3-3 record. I would point to the projected finishes and playoff picture that Yahoo provides, but its crock! The best team doesn't always win. For example: I moved from seventh overall to third and a division leader this past week. You've got to be kidding me. It is anyone game and you can control your destiny.. sorta.

One example of this is Russell's athletics, who are one of the hottest teams right now with a three game winning streak. After starting 0-3, averaging almost 86 points, with a plus/minus differential of -51, he has completely flipped the script. He is averaging over 107 a game and with a plus/minus of 89! Part of this transformation was him hitting the waiver wire picking up Pryor, Crowell, and Michael.

This turnaround couldn't have come at a better time. Don't wait around for comeback, go out an get it. This requires some research. Some digging. It's not easy, but anything worth something isn't easy. I know Brent would agree.

Week 5 Recap

Help, I've fallen and can't get up. 

I poke fun at a lot of you. I call you out. I think its fun. 

Current Yahoo End of the Year Projections 

A Gaff!

Screenshot taken Sunday, October 9, 2016 @ 4:24 PST

Here is what we know:

John's Starting Lineup

If you have a a player that has a 'Bye' that player will not play. In fact, this is done on purpose. A 'Bye' week is part of every NFL teams schedule, every year. 

If you have a player with the red O, that player will not play. He is out. Whether injured or suspended. He cannot play and should not be in the starting lineup. 

John had four plays in his starting lineup that had either a 'Bye' or a red O. Two WR and two RBs, a Bye and injury for both. That is not good. 

He does not have enough players on his bench to replace all of these individuals. He can replace just one of these players.

This is not good management. 

He has one viable player, Matt Jones, to put in.

Rivers can only play QB. 

John's Bench

Diggs has been ruled out of the game. 

Bennett (who you should start from now on and should have started [ANOTHER GAFF]) can only play TE. 

And Philadelphia can only play defense. 

-- PERHAPS --

John, the league founder, knew all of this and was taking a Bye week for himself. 

Brady doing Brady Things

CLEVELAND, OHIO - Tom Brady returned from his four game suspension and made quick work of the Browns, tallying 406 yards through the air with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and most importantly notching a win. "There was plenty of rust," Brady said after the game. "I still have a long ways to go. Giselle expects more out of me." But the real story was the battle of his more famous distant cousins, Ben and Cameron, who were in attendance to watch him play.

This weeks matchup marks the fifth regular season time they have squared off. They have split the first four games, with Ben winning both match-ups in the '14-'15 season by an average of just under 20 points a game. Cameron took both games in the '15-'16 season averaging just under 13 points a game. This will be the only time they face off in the '16-'17 regular season. Tensions were extremely high when I was Skyping with Cameron earlier this morning. 

"I work too hard. For it to come to this. I just... I don't even know how to say it. But I gotta win. I can't emphasize enough how important this game it to me. I literally meant what I just said." 

Ben was a little more laid back when we were on a google hangout just 10 minutes ago. 

"I've had more success in the post season, that's all that matters. Look, you've got to understand something, I couldn't care less than I care right now. The fact that we have to talk about this supposed brother rivalry has me more fired up than the actual match-up." 

With both teams at 2-2 this season, this game does mean quite a bit. However, it is known that one brother will be 3-2, with the other will be 2-3, in both this season and in the rivalry. That is a fact. 

Did you know?

There are other pages on this blog? Yeah! Its been like this for over a year....

DESKTOP:

MOBILE:

The downward arrow on the same bar as 'Home' will display the same pages as above once clicked.

Week 4 Recap

 * Updated *

October 2, 2016 - Texting with Scott

9:22 AM MST 

Jeremy maclin or Terrell prior? 

Jimmy graham or gronk?

Isiah Crowell or Christine Michael?

I need answers!

9:50 AM MST

Prior. Graham. Crowell.

But who really knows!

12:43 PM MST

You're projected to win right now

7:15 PM MST *NEW VOICEMAIL*

October 2, 2016 - Texting with Steven

1:49 PM MST

Dude I am going to lose to Scott

Yup. Looks bleak. 

I mean Hopkins!! No Points!!

8:25 PM MST

Big Ben is amazing

You owe him this won

win

100%

0.04

Remember when Lakers has Gary Payton and Karl Malone? And they were playing the Spurs in the playoffs? Manu still had hair.. Well, Derek Fisher hit that incredible shot with four tenths of a seconds left on the clock to win the game. It has been determined that its physically impossible to score a basketball with 0.4 seconds on the clock... Well, Scott lost by less than 0.4.... He lost be less than anyone else has in the history of fantasy football. He lost by less than 

In 2015, Cameron beat Caleb by 0.10 (Read the post here, see the record here). This is fantasy football, not sprinting or swimming! The only shred of hope Scott can have is this disclaimer that is on the summary of every matchup:

This has been enlarged for your viewing

4-0 and 0-4

No team has ever started 4-0. This is uncharted territory. He has a real chance to go 5-0 when he faces Maggie. 

Two other teams have started 0-4. Caleb in 2015 and Jesse in 2016. Caleb lost five in a row, but almost made it to .500 by the end of the season. Jesse's team was a horrible team and lost 12 straight. He quit at the end of the year.

Other Notes --

There were a lot of close games this week. Tip of the cap to the winners. Many games when into Monday night hanging in the balance. Don't beat yourself up too much. 

Also, I'm not able to post embedded links on this blog. Any ideas why?

-- Update --

A 4-0 start will have to wait. The Fantasy gods have smiled on Scott and have awarded him a stat correction of 0.8.

As of 10.3.2016

As of 10.4.2016

Projecting the likelihood of meeting the projection

I've wondered to myself: How valuable is Yahoo's algorithm showing my projected score? It is obviously more sophisticated than something I could do, but how reliable is it? A fair question to ask as I utilize this tool often to see where I can improve and if I should even check my app on Sunday.

BUT the most important thing to realize before we go down this road is this - Fantasy Football is probably about 95% luck - one injury, one player emerges, a whole season is changed.

What does the data show?

Between the 2014 data and the 2015 data, I have tracked whether or not a manager has beat or missed their projected score 406 times. A decent sample set.

For 2014 and 2015 Years:
~47%% of the time, players beat their projected score.
~53% of the time, players miss their projected score.
And of those times they miss their score, ~43% of the time they will miss the mark by at least 10 points.

The numbers vary quite a bit per year:

2014
Beat: 44%
Missed: 56%
If Missed, miss by 10+: 57%

2015
Beat: 51%
Missed: 49%
Missed by 10+: 25%

What does this mean? Don't plan on hitting your score more often than not, and the chances of you missing by a lot is high. The Yahoo project score is more accurate than having Hambre pick your lineup.

I think 2015 projected score was more accurate because there was less talent on each team. In 2014 it was a smaller league and you could have multiple guys who were supposed to perform at high levels, but didn't. Like I said, mismanaging talent.

2016 data supports this theory, although there are only 30 scores recorded so far.

2016
Beat: 37%
Missed: 63%
Missed by 10+: 36%

-- UPDATE --
I wrote this blog post late at night and in bed. It's not my strongest work, but I do think it is interesting that basically its a 50-50 chance that you'll hit your score. But when you miss, you miss big.

POWER RANKINGS

I'm only going to show the top four teams... cause otherwise it would be 50% of the league... I probably should only look at the top three.

According to my simple formula:

1) Steven - 3-0. Leading the league in scoring and is 89 on the year. 

2) Ben - A bad week 3 costed him, but he's nipping at Steven's heel in the way too early to tell power ranking...

3) Sean - I was surprised by this one, but he has had the toughest schedule to date. It's a stupid formula..

4) Brent - He could easily be #3. He is third in +/- at +26

Week 3 Recap

3-0! A Proven Project!

"The best part about being three and 'O' is the chance to go four and 'O'." - Steven, Manager of TheBlairWlashProject

Steven wasted no time in his press conference after his third straight win, by overcoming an underperforming squad in League Founder, as he looked forward to next week. "The best part about being three and 'O' is the chance to go four and 'O'," he said at the post game presser. This streaking team has matched the best start of any team to date. Ben's Cobra Kai squad started 3-0 in the 2014 season, but was not able to make it four in a row. "Look, we are beating our projected score on average by ~16% and smoking our opponents by almost 30 points on average. I don't think we will let up any time soon."

Steve may be right, as his team faces the lowly Russell's athletics this next week. Russell's athletics, managed by Scott, is back from vacation, but is coming back to a broken home. With the team's very namesake, Russell Wilson, suffering an injury we will see what kind of heart and guts this team is made of. They desperately need a big boost as they are scoring ~81% of projected points for the first three weeks. Perhaps the spark Scott is looking for can come from Le'Veon Bell, who makes his debut this week. Hold your breath!

A glass ceiling doesn't come down all at once... all the time... but it can...

Could this be the start of the take over! Don't question their stamina, because Christie and Maggie are here to stay! With a resounding comeback performance by both teams, you can only hope this is the beginning of a new era. 

Christie led all scores with 147.94 - the second best score all year - which was a dramatic 70% increase over last week's dismal posting of 86 points. She hopes this wasn't an anomaly, as she scored ~47% more than her projected score. Either way, it is something to build off of as she faces an inflated record and hollow team in the Cheeto Stain. 

After being dissected by Dr. Sean last week, Maggie rebounded nicely with a tight win over the #2 Yahoo ranked Cobra Kai.  While it is the most narrow victory this year, just over a point, a victory boosted the moral of the team and they celebrated at Dave and Buster's. 

What's wrong with 2-1? Nothing. It's early.

Let's list them, in no particular order: Mustache Salad, Cheeto Stain, Cobra Kai, and League Founder. 

The week over week jump for Brent was not as crazy as Christie's, but it was still 40% increase and 40% more than projected. The first two weeks he scored at least 90% of his projected score. This isn't the team of last year, despite being 2-1 at this same juncture, he was averaging 124 a game in 2015. This year? Almost 115.

Ben is second in overall scoring, but had a rough week this week. He has been projected to score the most in these first three weeks and has only missed the mark once, which was this past week. He scored just 92% of his projected. 1.08 is the only difference between Steven and Ben. And that Steven has scored about 16 more points over these three weeks. 

After the League Founder wrapped up their game, John stormed into the presser with stat sheet crumpled up in hand and shouted, "I demand to see a graph of some kind. I can't read numbers and make sense of them." The fourth year coach has always been outspoken, but this took his notoriety to the next level. "Fundamentally, I don't agree with the presentation of these 'stats', John continued as he waved his arms around in the air. "This is football, man. It's not you know... math and stuff." It was an interesting insight on how he manages his team. 

I wanna see a graph?!

The below charts says it all for JW and Sean, who also doesn't read this blog. So....

Weighted Moving Average is a four week metric. Not available yet, as we haven't played four weeks.

Week 2 Recap

KAEPTIVATING AND COBRA KAI TAKES NO PRISONERS! They posted score of 158.12 and 146.96! Geez. The crazy thing is that this isn't a PPR league. These kind of scores are outrageous.

Kaeptivating has a solid team. Yeah, they rebounded in a monster way, improving their score by almost 66% week over week, but if you look at his roster is littered with names with big potential and some surprises. Huh? What am I saying? Read the following:
Cam Newton, despite his "fashion" has the potential to be the fantasy MVP. He can throw the deep ball and run. That's a double plus. We all know the consistency of Julio Jones. If you don't, then maybe listen to a podcast or do whatever the hell it is you do, besides pay attention to fantasy football. He's got Jordy Nelson (A-Rog fav), Kelvin Benjamin (doubling up on Cam's targets!), Travis Benjamin (SD's #1 now), etc. I can literally get away with saying etc in that past sentence because he has a solid bench. BUT the biggest surprise to me is Melvin "Now I'll show up" Gordon. Don't think I forgot last year when I drafted him. Guy was a dog! But now, especially with the injury to Danny Woodhead, the guys is the feature back! He's a dawg.

Let's not get too excited though, right? Sean is just a 1-1 team. Let's talk about a team that is 2-0 and will be ranked as the number two team in the league, Cobra "Mother Freaking" Kai. This is not a new story for Ben, as he always has competitive teams. I caught up with him briefly over Skype and he said, "Last year it was disappointing. A losing season and all. It was tough, but I'm in a much better place now. I feel like this is our year." I applaud what he has done in his first two weeks. He has solid wins. It should not be a surprise to anyone. However, there are some major concerns on the bench due to injuries and when L. Bell's suspension ends, his work horse in D. Williams might have to be put out to pasture. 

Who is number one though?! Who wanted to back up his week 1 high score and showed that he isn't just another burnt out cigarette in the ash tray that is this league, is my response. Steven. The wonder man. The wonder bread. The coolest thing since sliced bread. The man who will slice open your defense. The guy who needs no defense... Actually, his defense was pretty damn solid this week. It early in the season, but you heard it here first, he isn't going to make the playoffs. I did no analysis other than looking at his roster and was like, "nah. This ain't it." But I'm pretty sure I do that every year. I hope he proves me wrong. If he does, I'll shave my head. No questions asked. 

I've been really positive so far, so let's get negative.

Rounding out the top half is myself and JW, aka "The Founder" aka "OG" aka "Clickity Clack, Click Clack". John had a really impressive win the first week, but he didn't get the same production from the same players. If he starts his other QB, WR1, and TE he is scoring over what he did last week, which was 130+. He has players, homie. He is a player. He was unavailable for comment on being a player. Guess he doesn't check twitter... His last tweet was him promoting the 'dumb ways to die' app in 2015.

Me? I have had the weakest schedule. No denying it. I'm not good.

Scotty must be really taking his vacation seriously by asking his team to also not show up. He's scored less than 83 points both weeks despite being projected to score over 100 both weeks. Week 1 he scored 77% of his projected score and 75% this week. On the flip side, I have benefited greatly from team's seriously underperforming. Doesn't help his cause that A. Peterson is out... He did pick up I. Crowell from CLE who had a monster week.

I'm 0-2, what do I do?!

Looking at you:

Scott

Maggie

Christie

Cameron

Panic. Re-invent your team. Blow it up.

What do you mean?

In the 2014 season, when Brent joined the league, his team started 0-2. He then won his next three and went 4-1 over the next five games. Understanding that this is a small sample set, but we've only kept stats for three years (including this year). Brent went to work on the waiver wire, retooling his team. Listen, this is possible. As stated in the first post, this year is the year of the manager. There is more talent hanging out as free agents and owners have to be smarter managing their teams.

Maggie has made some smart moves, as she picked up L. Blount from the Pats this week, who had a 19+ week. She just picked up the Salsa Dancer, Victor Cruz, so things could be looking up as she has a lot of holes to fill before her ship sinks to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. When you are starting Pitts #3 or #4 WR target in LaFell, you know you got problems.

GET ON THE WAIVER WIRE, CHRISTIE! Are you really just waiting till week 4 to get going? C'mon sis! Z. Miller is a nice placeholder until Gronk comes back, but you must know something I don't know cause you have a roster full of no names.

Cameron. I got nothing man. You have the names. Woodhead going down hurts, but Hill is a solid RB2. This is a team that is just behind the curve. 

Week 1 Recap

Half of the teams are 1-0, the other half are 0-1. I got some more hot takes coming right at ya!

1. We have 10 teams in the league this year. We had 14 last year and 12 the year before that. What does that mean? It means that there are more talent to be had. However, it can also lead to distractions and dilemmas of who to play and who to sit. Look at your bench, I guarantee you had someone that outperformed your starter.
2. Do not touch Cleveland right now. Look, until this QB situation plays out, you're not going to find anyone like Gary Barnige. Give it another couple weeks. Sit anyone that has CLE by their name. 
3. The dashboard is... broke. I need to do some serious remodeling. Apologies. Not that any of you actually look at this. 
4. Move of the week was Steven picking up Spencer Ware off the waivers who ended up scoring 27+. To put that in context, last year teams scored over 140 just nine times and it was only done by six teams. This was the fifth all-time for Steven. 

What will this season hold for us?

Around week 8 or 9 most of us will realize that we won't win. All the time, all the effort, was for naught. How did you get there? Well, it starts with self doubt. It then becomes fear. And then, in sweet and fantastic beauty, it become failure. That is how 90% of the managers of the JJJL league will be because of how they started. If you draft poorly, you will fail.

Yahoo will rank our drafts and say mean stuff, like, "Nice job drafting four running backs, dumbass". I expect at least a D- for me (see projected finishing places based on draft above and I actually got a B-). I am not going to even attempt to give each team grades. I know nothing about this game. This horrific game spawned from the devil himself.

What has me interested is seeing the many story lines for this upcoming season unfold like an episode of the x-files. It's gunna get weird.

1) Will Brent extend his streak to three straight silver championship fantasy football rings purchased from one the internet's e-commerce websites? This continued dominance would forever cement his place in immortality. No one can doubt his ability to scrap his way to a finals. I can't wait to see what kind of maneuvers he is going to pull. It's going to be kind of like that new Vin Diesel movie? You just hate watching it happen, but its going to crush the box office.

2) Is anyone going to come up with better names? I mean, honestly? People need to do better. I get it if it worked for you... but it hasn't really for most.. Has it? Do you keep naming the progeny of a losing horse after said horse? NO!

3) With another woman in the mix this increases the odds of having the first woman champ. Its shaping up to be historic year in the political arena. Will we see it here?

4) Ultimately, what will the future of this league be? We have seen a significant amount of turnover and missteps by myself. Makes me wonder if the fantasy football world will implode! Probably not.

5) Will a Hyde even win this league? I get the feeling that it will not happen. No person with Hyde blood has won this league. Ever.

It should be a great year!

The worst way to renew a season

Back in May I sent out a feeler email to see who would rejoin the league. It was simple, you in or out. The problem was that I left off people who were in the league the previous year... unintentionally. See, in gmail you can create groups. I had a group set up for fantasy football, but it was from the original season. I had made some revisions to it, but I hadn't added everyone on the list.

Minutes before the draft I get a text from a brother who got wind of the draft and asks, "Hey, am I in the league?"

Its locked. Nothing I can do. The table is set and my label is pronounced upon myself. I am a douche.

I can't have this kind of crap happen again!

The fact of the matter is that the league is as good as the commissioner makes it. I started off this season with less fire in my belly than a drenched beach towel. I even said that I would spend less time than I had in previous seasons (which is still true, because I put in way too much time) and that set the tone. The tone for this league.

That tone resulted in half of the league showing up for the draft. Nice.

I'm sorry guys and gals. I commit to tightening up the bolts.