Does the draft matter?

With an additional two teams added to the league (I know. I have already screwed up the league and went back on my word...) it will be even more challenging to find diamonds in the rough before they are swooped up by other teams. Even though one roster spot has been eliminated from each team (6 bench spots to 5 spots) by adding two teams, essentially 28 players are locked up. This makes the draft even more critical. You need two consistent players (20+ a game) to make it down the stretch. Two-by-two, its doctrinal, baby. Injuries and suspensions are killer, ie Adrian Peterson or Josh Gordon.

To make it a little more equitable we are also going to be instituting a waiver wire. Our waiver wire will be a two day window, from Sunday to Tuesday. It will be continual waiver wire. Please see below for the definition:

• Continual rolling list: waiver claims are processed in waiver priority order and each successful claim moves a manager to the end of the waiver priority list

So, does the draft matter? Yes, it does. If you don't believe me then keep reading the below shotty analysis. I only looked at the teams with 10 wins and above, because anyone else isn't worth the time. However, that the last place team did not finish with his picks from the first two rounds. In other words, the highest pick left on his bench was his third rounders. In the other other words, he did not draft well. Now, let's take a look:

Cobra Kai (Ben) 11-5: Only dropped three of his original draft class. He had the 2nd pick in last years draft and took P. Manning and L. Bell with his first two picks, both who finished in the top 6 in 2014. Both Manning and Bell were statistical monsters and pushed Cobra to an early head start going 6-2 in their first 8 games. They seemed sure to have the championship locked up, but week 16 proved to be the teams worst performance, scoring only 83 pts and missed their projected score by almost 30 pts. Manning fell apart against the Bengals throwing 4 INTs and taking 2 sacks. Bell rushed for a TD but only had 63 yds. Bad timing, but still drafted the hell out of it and had a shot at the end.
Manning and Bell...Two-by-two.

Quixotic Prayer (Steven) 11-5: Dropped five original players. This team would lead the league for the entire season in scoring and record. He took the steal of the draft last year by taking Andrew Luck in the FOURTH round - he would finished #1. He also had a steady work horse in the #BattleBorn Demarco Murray, who was his second pick and finished #3. Week 16 was another horrible week for a top seeded team.... not horrible, but bad enough to lose to Kops. Andrew Luck threw two TDs, but was without his favorite target in Hilton (DNP) and amassed only 106 yrds. Murray rushed the ball a whopping 58 yrds against Luck's Colts that same week.
Luck and Murray - TWO-BY-TWO

kindergartner kops (Brent) 10-6: The reigning Champ dropped just three as well, but please note that he was on auto draft. As stated before and stated again, the Yahoo algorithm and rankings is legit. Who would have know that using your first two pick to get Steelers - Big Ben and Antonio Brown - both of whom would finish in top 10 for 2014.
Ben and A.Brown. Two x Two.

Mrs. Starr (Me) 10-6: Runner-up dropped a solid eight dudes! Wow. And the best finisher on the team was Jordy Nelson, who finished at 17 (now out for the season.. stupid preseason). The only way that I made it to the finals was luck... I mean, I took McCoy first and he didn't even break into the top 40 guys.
No two by two! LUCK! That is also really important in fantasy. Go out and buy some today.

Tuesday 10-6 (John): He dropped just four of his OGs. But he had no one finished in top 10; the highest rated player was Arain Foster at 14. His first pick? Calvin Johnson... I am not sure he even played last year...the difference from 2013 to 2014 was: 4 TDs, 13 Catches, and 415 yrds. That is pretty big when you lose your last game of the season by a mere 6.42 pts!
No two by two... had a really weak schedule..

The draft totally matters! If you can find your Andrew Luck in the fourth round or your double down on a QB/WR combo you'll kill it. Then, you can do everything right, pick up A. Peterson with your first pick and end up with a 9-7 season. Nothing to write home about, Jesse. Or you overvalue a TE and draft a WR that can't quit smoking weed... looking at you PIPPA! Dammit PIPPA! You could have been something.

The two by two rule is a must, but that doesn't mean you can have a crappy supporting cast. That should be obvious, right? But key to the two by two is a QB! Gotta get that stellar QB.

Draft Order 2015 Pt. II

Draft Order 2015 Pt. I

After making this video I realized its a good thing I don't have to make a living off of making videos for YouTube...

Championship Weekend 2014

It is here lady and gents, Championship Weekend. The quest to wear the ring that will single handedly mark you as a geek is nearing the end. It has been an exciting season, a wild playoff, and now finally it ends with a matchup that not many saw (if anyone saw it).

First, there are several items I want to discuss with all of the managers about next year that I have at the bottom of this post. So please respond in some form or fashion. I know the season isn't over, but I doubt I will have everyone attention next weekend.

Also, this post is heavy on the numbers and long as it comes in three parts, just like the Godfather... And by me saying that probably half or the three people that might read this have left. I'm left with 1.5 of you now. Let's hop to it.

PART I:
Championship Matchup - 
kindergarten kops v. Mrs. Starr

How they got here: 

kops - Defeated the Manager of the Year and the #1 seed in the playoff, Quixotic Prayer by a score of 98 to 89. Kops is on a four game winning steak and is now 10-6.

Starr - Defeated the Rookie of the Year and the #2 seed in the playoffs, Cobra Kai by a score of 122 to 83. He is riding a five game winning streak and is now 10-6.

BOTH TEAMS- Benefited from the T.Y. Hilton injury. T.Y. has been one of the most productive players for the Cobra Kai squad. He has scored over 20 points in four of his last nine games and over 10 points in six out of his last nine games. Cobra looked to his bench this week and put in Jarvis Landry, who got a solid 1.9 points. Ouch.

And poor Q. Prayer! Andrew Luck, who has been a machine, did not look good without his favorite target in Hilton. Luck has thrown the ball to TY 27 times, has accounted for 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the last two games he played. TY has scored at least one TD three of his last four games. Unlucky for Prayer. (I HAD TO DO IT). 

What's the season been like for them? 

kops - A team that was put together by the superior Yahoo algorithms, kindergarten kops was made to be a wrecking machine. First was managed by the son of Son of Luchesse, but who left for a better gig soon after the draft. Brent quickly filled in and has made some solid moves since taking the helm. He has been one of the most consistent teams week in and week out. He has never dropped below 91 points a game.

Starr - first time commish and also had the first draft pick. With an up and down season, he barely made the playoff (another first for him) and has been more lucky than good.

Both teams hail from the Sierra League, the power division, and are well tested.

Tale of the tape:

Cousins by birth, but rivals by nature... I guess? A Seahawks fan and a Forty Niners fan. A BYU fan vs a Ute. Washington State v Nevada. Family Man v Newly Married Man. Rookie v Commissioner. Rebel v Straight Edge. Thick skinned v Thin skinned. This is sure to be a rumble.

They have met twice this season. kops easily won the first matchup in Week 3, with a score of 96 to 54. Starr exacted vengeance in Week 12, beating kops 114 to 92. They both hunt the waiver wire like dogs; Starr has 47 moves as of 12/22 7:32 PM MST and kops has 38 moves as of 12/22 7:33 PM MST.

Figure 1 and 2 shows the breakdown of each team with metrics we have been looking at all year. They are almost dead even in Pts/Game, but after that the similarities end, like all rivals! Kops high score dwarfs Starr's, but the recent trends favor Starr.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 1 is actually Figure 2, just in a bar chart format. It really brings out the differences in the teams statistics. It helps you visualize what those numbers mean. You can really see the difference in height. Neat, huh?

Figure 3 is neat too. This illustrates how these teams have performed as to the number of times they have scored below or above certain bench marks. The distribution for Starr is more even than that of kops, which is further shown in Figures 4 and 5. 

Figure 3

Here is the thing, kops hasn't scored below 90 once. He is due for that, right? Starr sure hopes so. Another stat, while Starr hasn't hit the highs that kops has, he has hit decent marks more.

A normal distribution curve helps explain probability. The issue with our fantasy figures is that they are more random and chaotic; they are not evenly distributed. The below figures detail out the scores and normal distribution of those scores. Its a poor man's chart, but brings an interesting wrinkle. 

Starr's chart resembles more closely to the standard bell curve that is seen in class, evenly distributed. Kops looks more heavily weighted below the mean and sporadic above the mean.

Figure 4

Kops has a mean of ~107 with a standard deviation of ~20. This means that most of his scores, theoretically, fall into the range of 87 to 126.

A small std. dev. is good, as in that it shows consistency. Comparing all the std. dev. I would say that around 20 is where you want to be. The worst teams in the league by record and scoring were below 20.

Starr has a mean of ~105 with a standard deviation of ~22. This means that most of his scores fall into the range of 82 to 127. When Starr misses the mark, they miss hard.

Figure 5

Lets take a look at each team's actual points scored over the year and the the 3 Week Weighted Moving Average (weights of .2, .3, .5 still are used).

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

The consistency of kops really is shown in the above Figures 6-8. However, the upward trend vs the subtle downward and even plateaued trend of kops is seen. 

Okay, with all of this numbers, what does it mean? Honestly, I don't know. This game is all about luck. There are so many factors that affect the game and so many little control the manager has. This is worse than gambling or the stock market (maybe?). The point is that injuries, match-ups, weather, other teammates, etc. all affect the outcome and score of the game. These charts and graphs are rudimentary and not predictive. My analysis relies heavily on past events, which isn't the best way to predict the future.

John was the closest in his model. He successfully predicted that kops would be in and the winner of his game vs Starr would win (he actually said he would win). I said that Q. Prayer and Cobra would be in the finals, but both teams fell short.

I'll pick Starr to take the crown.

Bronze Metal Matchup - 
Quixotic Prayer v. Cobra Kai

If I haven't lost you yet, I commend you.

How they got here: 

Q. Prayer - The number one seed all year. He's led the league in scoring with a total of 1902 points and ~119 a game. After his bye he managed to only put up 89 points, just the second time all year that he hasn't broke 90. Fell short at the wrong time. They are 11-5 and have lost four of their last seven games.

Cobra Kai - The Number two seed all year. The second best team in the league with a total of 1818 points and ~114 points a a game. After his first round by he managed to only put up 83 points, his lowest of the season and the only time he's scored below 90. This was not the time to falter. They are 11-5 as this week's loss was only their second in their last seven games.

Tale of the tape:

This is the matchup that I thought would happen from the very beginning. Two of the teams that arguably drafted the best. Both teams have been hunting the waiver wire, Cobra with 18 moves to Prayer's 26, but didn't rely solely on that area. They have had solid production from a couple of players all year and maybe that is where it hurt them the most.

They have met just one time this season, in week 9 Q. Prayer won 127 to 102. This was also when Prayer looked it's hottest and has since tailed off. In fact, Q. Prayer said that he would lose to Brent. I mean, have some faith! On the other hand, Ben hasn't ever commented on a single post. Is he breathing?! Is Cameron actually managing "his brother's" team?! Wouldn't be the first time that family collusion has happened.

But seriously, Ben you do read these? Or are you like Sean and had no idea that we had a message board and blog going? This would ruin my Christmas.

Figure 9 and 10 tells the story of a fading Prayer and Ninja just getting warmed up.

Figure 9

Figure 10

Most of Prayers big time scoring was done in the early to middle part of the season, while Cobra has put up some big number recently - 160 is week 14.

Figure 11

Prayer has a mean of ~119 and a std. dev. of ~25, giving him a range of 94 to 144. Prayer has the third largest std. dev.

Figure 12

Cobra's curve shows his mean of ~114 and a std. dev. of ~20.

Figure 13

To further explain the trends that the teams are on, lets look at total points v their 3 Week Weighted Moving Average. Both teams had peaks early and in the later half of the season. Both are experiencing a decline in production. Gotta diversify that portfolio bro!

Figure 14 

Figure 15

Figure 16

I don't really see this being a high scoring affair, as both of their star players are facing decent opponents, but again, what the heck do I know? I say Cobra squeaks out a win over the disbelieving Prayer.

PART II: 
Actual Points v. Projected

John asked me to take a look at projected points vs actual and who underperformed. The below graphs aren't the greatest to look at so I will call out some obvious results. Also, I have attached another set of charts illustrating each teams performance.

1.  Yes, John, you underperformed, but you made the playoffs. 
2. Paragon missed his total projected score by ~267 points.  

Figure 17

Figure 18

Figure 19

Figures 20 through 22 are season long totals for each team. Figure 20 shows the total points scored, average, high, low, how many times the team scored below 90, above 100 and so forth. Figure 22 is a graphical representation of scores below 90, above 110 and above 120. 

Figure 20

Figure 21

Figure 22

 In case you were wondering....

PART III: 
Items for Next Season 

1. The Draft. Paragon Heroes has motioned to move to an auction draft rather than the traditional snake draft. For those who do not know what auction drafting is - it is where each manager is allotted a dollar amount and gets to bid on each player; the highest bid wins. 
• This would involve a different strategy and would be more realistic as you are acting as a GM. 
• Beware auto-draft kings. 
• If this is something you are interested in please second the motion and we will vote on it as a league. 
2. Awards. I would like to keep doing the awards, but I do not want to fund it alone. If everyone could pitch in $10 bucks we could continue the awards and get some fun stuff. 
3. Involvement. There are several opportunities that I would like to offer to you managers. If I don't get any volunteers I am happy to nominate someone. 
• Award Selection Committee: I need two people to help me select candidates for awards and choose the awards. 
• CFO: I need a Saul who will help me collect money for the awards.  
• Weekly Roundup: I plan on continuing to provide weekly analysis or some type of write up, but I would appreciate if someone else joined in. Another person would bring a different perspective and insight. 
4. Keeping the league at 12. I think the number of managers we have is perfect and I do not want to add any more. If you do not want to participate in the league next year that is totally fine. Just let me know so we can find a suitable replacement. Sorry if this comes across wrong, as this is not my intent, but I feel like we have a good thing going.

JJJL by the Numbers: Week 12 2014

Recap 

Week 12 was a bounce back week for the league and the majority of the teams from Week 11, which was our worst week so far with the lowest total points scored at 1062 (the season average is 1198) and a season high seven teams scoring below 85 pts. In Week 12 the league posted a total score of 1223 or just over 24 points our season average, just two teams scored below 85 (Tuesdays and Kaep - who were playing each other. A real barn burner), while three teams tallied scores greater than 120 (Pippa Hills, Duke 91 & 92, and Son of Luchesse), and only one team hit their a season low for points scored (Cobra).

We had several close games with many going to the final night to determine the winner. Quixotic Prayer held a narrow margin going into Monday night, but the fire power of Pippa Hills proved too much for QP, as he lost by 24 pts. Pippa Hills has been rolling over his opponents - over the last five weeks he is beating teams by 38 pts/game - and is the hottest team in the league, winning five games in a row. He is the team to beat right now.

Juxtaposed to that battle was the offensive struggle of Tuesday with Megatron and Kaeptivating, with with a score of 76 to 65, TwM winning. It was the fourth worst combined score all year. TwM is on a three game win streak and lucky for him his last three opponents have not scored above 75 pts/game while he has averaged just over 87 a game.

Son of Luchesse just had to ruin it for Paragon Heroes, who had a narrow lead going into Monday night, but it was never meant to be. SoL is now on a four game winning streak and looks to have the sixth seed tied up in the playoffs. He has been clutch in getting these past wins to get into the playoffs.

A word about Paragon and moment of silence. Paragon has steady improved, scoring over 100 pts/game in two of his last three games, but has not benefited from it. Teams have averaged a staggering over 130 against him over the past three games. Heroes has also had the most pts scored against him with an astounding 1439, about 168 more than the next team toughest schedule.

A few other notes -

1. Baywolf proved me right when he beat Cobra - the whole up and down thing. 
2. Starr somewhat kept his playoff hopes alive his victory over KK, but this hurt KK more than anything. 
3. Duke did what a champ should do, beat a lesser opponent and sured up his playoff spot. 

Playoff Picture

With just two regular season games left, the playoff race is rounding nicely into shape. With four teams sure to make it in - Quixotic Prayer, Cobra Kai, Pippa Hills, and Tuesdays with Megatron - there are four others battling for just two spots - Son of Luchesse, Duke 91 & 92, Kindergarten Kops, and Mrs. Starr. The seedings could shake up a bit, but the real race is for the fifth and sixth seed.

The fifth spot is Duke's to lose, but he does not have an easy road ahead, facing the number #1 team, Quixtoic Prayer, and then a team that is on the bubble, Mrs. Starr. It is true that QP has been fading for some time, his three week moving average (3WMA) for weeks 10-13 is just 93.7, the eighth worst in the league, but he is averaging 118 pts/game over the entire season and has shown signs in the past of explosive offense. Starr looks to be a more competitive match-up - Duke's 3WMA is just over 101 while Starr's is just over 103. However, the three week moving weighted average (3WMWA - weights of .5, .3, and .2 applied to the most recent to oldest week) tells a different story, with Duke at 109 and Starr at 104. Duke could go 0-2, but I him more likely to go 1-1. We will see where the current champ ends up.

The sixth spot seems to more attainable. SoL holds the spot only because of his record (tie breakers, if any, is given to the team with the higher season point total) as KK and Starr have higher total points scored. His road is not as difficult, as he faces an up and down team in Bayowolf next week and then a more challenging matchup in Cobra. If he goes a 1-1 it opens the door for KK and Starr, but both teams would have to go 2-0. This proves to be difficult as both teams face Pippa Hills in the final two weeks. Looks like strength of schedule only matters in the sense that the better team does not always make it in.

Top 6

Let take a look at the top six teams, from highest rank to lowest, as it stand today. Note that the below charts show actual points vs the 3WMWA. 

1. QP -
Season Average Pts/Game: 118
3WMA: 93
3WMWA: 97

This has been the team to beat all season long, but after two losses in a row this team looks mortal. They peaked in Week 8 and haven't rebounded. If they finish #1, which is pretty likely, the will face  TwM or Duke in the second round of the playoffs (ceteris paribus).  This team has the potential to win it all with his big players Luck and Murray facing less than stellar defenses (Luck has the Cowboys and Titans for the final two weeks of the playoffs; Murray has Colts and Skins).

2. Cobra -
Season Average Pts/Game: 110
3WMA: 99
3WMWA: 97

I've been impressed with this team's consistency all year long, never scoring below 90 points is pretty incredible in of itself; the only other team to not score below 90 is KK. However, that same consistency has shown that explosive points is rare as he has only scored above 120 twice. He's got his playoff ticket punched, and while the seeding isn't all in order, he can benefit from knowing his team can put up 100 or more 75% of the time.

3. Pippa -
Season Average Pts/Game: 107
3WMA: 139
3WMWA: 135

I've got two charts for the streaking team because its unparalleled. Take a look at the 3WMA chart with three other teams, KK, Cobra, and Prayer. He is streaking by them as they are bottoming out. You could say he is peaking too soon, but we will know when the playoffs actually start. Right, Madden? I really think this is the team to beat and I see him finishing strong on seven week win streak.

This is not weighted. 

4. TwM -
Season Average Pts/Game: 99
3WMA: 87
3WMWA: 83

WoW. A game of up and down fellas and weak schedule is how this team is ranked so high. The only consistency is his inconsistency. He scores above 100 just 41% of the time. Sure he has had two major games, so the fire power is there when he is healthy. He better he gets healthy soon, as he has scored less than 100 three out of the four last weeks.

5. Duke -
Season Average Pts/Game: 101
3WMA: 101
3WMWA: 109 

One of the few teams that has fallen and rebounded significantly. He's on the upward trend and I am not feeling great about facing him next week. The former champ has some magical sauce around the playoffs 

6. SoL -
Season Average Pts/Game: 95
3WMA: 108
3WMWA: 109

With half of his games scoring below 100, this team is in the playoffs largely due to his schedule, but I have to credit to his performance over the past three weeks that has pushed him into the playoffs; he has set his season high and scored his third highest post. If he can keep this trend going it will be huge for him. It is also better for the league. There is a direct correlation between his activity on the message board and his success.

The Rest

The below two teams are on the outside looking in and need some help to get in.

7. KK -
Season Average Pts/Game: 108 
3WMA: 101
3WMWA: 99

Quite honestly, he should be in the playoffs. I want him to be there because this team is consistency good. When you don't have epic meltdown, as most teams have, it's really unfortunate to not make it in. I mean, look at the chart. This is a result of a tough schedule by way of a tough division. Sucks, yo.

8. Starr -
Season Average Pts/Game: 102
3WMA: 103
3WMWA: 104

I'm basically the inverse of what you want to have happen to your team. Meltdowns and a tough division. Hard to be a winner.

The rest of you guys weren't making the playoffs and I have spent entirely too much time putting this together. I'm sitting in a room with all of my family and I am on my computer. Sorry guys. If you want your chart, comment on this post. However, I encourage you to finish strong because the consolation tourney is coming up.*


*But who gives a sh!t

JJJL by the Numbers: Week 10 2014

With only a few games left in the season, its time to not only look forward, but to look backwards to see what I got right and what I got wrong over some of my various postings. Please refer back to my previous post JJJL by the Numbers, if you actually have the time/give a crap/bored out of your mind/want to laugh at me, for the majority of the below and the draft grades originally given on the message board.

What I got right -

1. Sticking with the numbers on Prayer and Cobra. All year they have been churning out win after win. 
2. Saying that kops and TwM were contenders. I still stand by that. Get em. RAR!
3. Putting Wolf, Kaep and Paragon in the dog house. Playas.. y'all having a rough year. 
4. Having faith in myself. I can still be around in the end... maybe. 

What I got wrong -

1. I broke up the divisions by an eye ball test of who I thought would balance out each other. I tried to split up managers who I thought would be "active" and therefore more successful in managing, ie more competitive. This was probably my biggest oversight as the Sierra League is clearly the better league.  In head to head match-ups, Sierra leads High Desert 16-8. Week 10 was the worst performance by the Sierra League falling 4-2. 
2. Draft Grades... all of them are a JOKE. If I could fit them all on a Laffy Taffy I would send them to the candy makers and they would love it. They would laugh so hard.....Look, you don't have to dig too deep into the grades to find SERIOUS flaws - just like the Banana Laffy Taffys. I gave Paragon Heroes the highest draft grade, an A, and Quixotic Prayer a C... what in heck was I thinking? I wasn't. Was I just trying to create a conversation? Sure... say that now. Get some reactions? My own reaction to that moment in time is, "Are you freaking kidding me." I don't know what was going on, but I was way off the mark. 
3. I should have bought stock in Duke. Never doubt a former Champion, especially when he gets to draft for himself. And, I stand corrected, he is a Badger.
4. I should have sold stock in Ruin and SoL. I wanted them to be better than the record and numbers showed. Despite SoL beating me this week he's no more of a threat than a man who is comfortable in his life and isn't desperate.
5. Selling Pippa stock. He had caught some bad luck early on, but he has battled back hard! 

-------Week 10 Recap-------

Note that all the below charts are points scored for the specified team. 

What a whacky week. Like I said, this week had some major playoff implications for almost everyone in the league - which is safe to say that pretty much every week going forward. The High Desert League posted a 4-2 record against the Sierra League, a first, as their previous high was two wins against the Sierra League.

For the first time all year, we had four teams post season highs for points: Pippa, SOL, Wolf, and Heroes. Also for the first time, we had three teams post their season lows for points: Kaep, Prayer, and Ruin.

This was a huge week for many teams, none more so then Pippa Hills, who rose 4 spots to a #3 rank. Boomshacklaka. I don't want to jinx him and say he is going to make a deep playoff run, but I'm going to. He is going to make a deep playoff run. He wasn't even in the playoff conversation a few weeks ago. Really incredible stuff. And a big week for Bayo'wolf, who has quitely won 3 in a row and is now ranked #9. Duke dropped from #3 to #5 and kops dropped from #4 to #6. Shake em up, shake em up, shake em.

• Is Q.Prayer human!?  This was his lowest point total of the year at 77.56 and Kaeptivating ....... oh Kaep. You failed us! Well, Maclin, who has been a tear, failed us. The Eagles failed a lot of us....The streak continues for Prayer, nine straight wins. Nine. W-9. Over the entire season, Prayer is the only team to average a double digit positive point differential, with just over 19 pts/game; Cobra is the next highest a just over 7 pts/game. Prayer doesn't have a easy road ahead though, with a playoff contending kops, a surging Pippa, the former champ Duke, and an angry Ruin... So basically three tough teams.  

The two top teams don't give a number two, just like Pit Bull, or their number out.

• Cobra does what a Cobra does, showed no mercy to Ruin. He is the only team now (with Prayer lapsing) to never score below 98 points. Which I think is a good indicator of consistency to a game that is called fantasy, aka anything can happen. Have you watched the ABC show? So confusing.... Cobra has been impressive all year and Mr. Peyton Manning has been worth every penny.
• Ruin. Oh, Ruin! She plateaued back in Week 5 and hasn't recovered, with her poorest worst performances of the year coming in back-to-back weeks in 9 and 10. She is averaging just over 85 points a game over the past four weeks AND THAT AINT GUNNA CUT IT. Cutler is falling apart and Forte isn't helping, or can't because the Bears suck. And again, Christie, Michael Crabtree is not the 49ers go-to receiver, and the 49ers do not put up a lot of points. I don't know what is being cooked up in the Brady home in Utah, but they need to get some of that Colorado Brady up in here! Ya know what I mean? That was a stretch if I ever made one.   

Very consistent... Consistently going down. I'm yelling TIMBER!

• Hey, I see you Bayowolf. Trending up in the big world. A season high 126.06 (the last time he scored over 100 was Week 6) points came against a stout kindergarten kops. This was huge win for Wolf - gained a ranking sport - and huge loss for kops - dropped two ranking spots. Wolf is outscoring opponents by ~16 pts/game for the past three weeks. 

The battle for Colin's heart. Bayowolf may have lost the battle, but war is looming.

• Starr and SOL. A lot of missteps in this matchup for me. I am seriously so pissed right now. I totally mismanaged my team, but I tip my cap to Jesse who needed this one badly. Another tip of the cap to Jesse for picking up Shoelace, who has been fantastic. Waiver wire! Waiver wire! Did I mention that Jesse is soulless? He picked up AP. You make me sick. 

Uncanny how closely they resemble each other...

• Probably the biggest story is Pippa. Pippa blows up for 165 points! He is averaging an impressive 140 points over the past three weeks. Don't call it a come back yet as he has a tough next four weeks with Duke, Prayer, Starr and Kops to end his season, all at .500 or above. But be on alert, he's coming into form and you gotta wonder if he can keep the train rollin. He is outscoring opponents by ~48 pts/game over the past three games. 





+47% growth from Week 7 to Week 10. But is it sustainable?



• Give Paragon a break, fellas. No other team has had more points scored against them than Paragon. Even in a week where he scores his season high, he gets clobbered. Thanks Pippa. The highest point total in a week has been against his team 4 x's. No other team has had more than one. Teams are averaging 121 pts/game against Paragon. He has had almost 116 more total points against him than the next highest, Starr, who averages almost 110 pts/game against. Truly a forgettable season. 

When we fall, we fall hard.

• Duke slips to Tuesdays, who had his second worst showing of the season largely due to his starting QB on the bench. In the past two match-ups his QBs have totaled 1.76 (as he has mentioned on the message board). Ouch! Dalton's suckiness really hurts Duke, who has AJ Green as his WR1 and thereby isn't getting the numbers he had last year. Don't discount this W for Tuesdays. This win was huge, who finally got his name sake back. Finally, he deserves to be called Tuesdays with Megatron (TwM). TwM has very favorable next four weeks with only one team with a winning record - Cobra. 

Both of the teams are capable of some big weeks. 

I want to point out that overall, this league is extremely completive with 8 of the 12 teams at or above .500. Coming down the stretch with many teams still in the hunt makes it fun. It looks like Week 11 will be another huge week for playoff hopes and dreams.

If the season ended today: 

1. Q.P. - Bye

2. Cobra - Bye

3. Pippa V 6. kk

4. TwM V 5. Duke

House keeping items: 

1) Trade deadline is Friday, November 21. I was #mistaken. Trade away!

JJJL breaking down each team: By Steven J. Hyde 2014

Estabongondalfo kid was thinking to himself, hey, what are some trades that we could make? This is a little late as the trade deadline is over, but still is great breakdown of weakness of teams. This is subject to change, as managers add and drop players, but I think it does a fine job of pointing out strengths and areas of development. Please see the below for his breakdowns.

Prayer - Too humble to do his own analysis. 

Cobra- Has the most RBs (6) and has the second most WR (5). Solid QB and does not have any weak positions

Starr- Weak QB and the back up is a gamble. Decent WRs, but weak secondary. 

Bayo'wolf- Has three QBs so there are trade options here. His weakness is in the details. He has the second worst Kicker and Defense, these are easy fixes. 

Paragon- Like Cobra he has 6 RB, unfortunately they are all mid range. His biggest problem is his WRs. He has the second lowest preforming WR and has no backups. 

Megatron- Other than the QB (which is the worst starter out there) he has a solid team. RBs, WRs, and TEs are all in the top three. He should consider trading with Bayo'wolf, Pippa, Quixotic or Kindergartner for a better QB

SOL- Is he playing? His RBs are worse than some teams bench players. His TEs are some of the worst providing just over 20 points for his team. Additionally, he has the worst defense. He needs to ride the waivers.

Duke- Decent all around. Does not really have a weak position and has a solid defense.

Pippa- WRs need help. He currently has the worst WR starters right now. Clearly he is trying to change that since he has 7 WR on his team. Defense could also improve here too. However, his team is not as bad as we thought. He has two solid QBs (nice trade options) plus decent RBs, Kicker and TE. 

Kindergartner- Similar to Duke, solid all around. Great QBs (starting and bench). Best Kicker and has some promising bench players. No real weak areas.

Breathtaking- When you look at her amazing RB (starting and bench) you would be shocked she does not have a better record. Her weakness is in her WRs and Kicker. He WRs are in the bottem three and her kicker is the worst of the league. She should consider trading some of her bench RB to improve her WRs, She should look to teams like Quixotic, Starr, Cobra, and Megatron 

Keaptivating- Few good things to say about this team. He has the second worst starting QB, RBs, and TE. His unlikely success will depend on his ability to pick up players.