JJJL by the Numbers: Week 12 2014

Recap 

Week 12 was a bounce back week for the league and the majority of the teams from Week 11, which was our worst week so far with the lowest total points scored at 1062 (the season average is 1198) and a season high seven teams scoring below 85 pts. In Week 12 the league posted a total score of 1223 or just over 24 points our season average, just two teams scored below 85 (Tuesdays and Kaep - who were playing each other. A real barn burner), while three teams tallied scores greater than 120 (Pippa Hills, Duke 91 & 92, and Son of Luchesse), and only one team hit their a season low for points scored (Cobra).

We had several close games with many going to the final night to determine the winner. Quixotic Prayer held a narrow margin going into Monday night, but the fire power of Pippa Hills proved too much for QP, as he lost by 24 pts. Pippa Hills has been rolling over his opponents - over the last five weeks he is beating teams by 38 pts/game - and is the hottest team in the league, winning five games in a row. He is the team to beat right now.

Juxtaposed to that battle was the offensive struggle of Tuesday with Megatron and Kaeptivating, with with a score of 76 to 65, TwM winning. It was the fourth worst combined score all year. TwM is on a three game win streak and lucky for him his last three opponents have not scored above 75 pts/game while he has averaged just over 87 a game.

Son of Luchesse just had to ruin it for Paragon Heroes, who had a narrow lead going into Monday night, but it was never meant to be. SoL is now on a four game winning streak and looks to have the sixth seed tied up in the playoffs. He has been clutch in getting these past wins to get into the playoffs.

A word about Paragon and moment of silence. Paragon has steady improved, scoring over 100 pts/game in two of his last three games, but has not benefited from it. Teams have averaged a staggering over 130 against him over the past three games. Heroes has also had the most pts scored against him with an astounding 1439, about 168 more than the next team toughest schedule.

A few other notes -

1. Baywolf proved me right when he beat Cobra - the whole up and down thing. 
2. Starr somewhat kept his playoff hopes alive his victory over KK, but this hurt KK more than anything. 
3. Duke did what a champ should do, beat a lesser opponent and sured up his playoff spot. 

Playoff Picture

With just two regular season games left, the playoff race is rounding nicely into shape. With four teams sure to make it in - Quixotic Prayer, Cobra Kai, Pippa Hills, and Tuesdays with Megatron - there are four others battling for just two spots - Son of Luchesse, Duke 91 & 92, Kindergarten Kops, and Mrs. Starr. The seedings could shake up a bit, but the real race is for the fifth and sixth seed.

The fifth spot is Duke's to lose, but he does not have an easy road ahead, facing the number #1 team, Quixtoic Prayer, and then a team that is on the bubble, Mrs. Starr. It is true that QP has been fading for some time, his three week moving average (3WMA) for weeks 10-13 is just 93.7, the eighth worst in the league, but he is averaging 118 pts/game over the entire season and has shown signs in the past of explosive offense. Starr looks to be a more competitive match-up - Duke's 3WMA is just over 101 while Starr's is just over 103. However, the three week moving weighted average (3WMWA - weights of .5, .3, and .2 applied to the most recent to oldest week) tells a different story, with Duke at 109 and Starr at 104. Duke could go 0-2, but I him more likely to go 1-1. We will see where the current champ ends up.

The sixth spot seems to more attainable. SoL holds the spot only because of his record (tie breakers, if any, is given to the team with the higher season point total) as KK and Starr have higher total points scored. His road is not as difficult, as he faces an up and down team in Bayowolf next week and then a more challenging matchup in Cobra. If he goes a 1-1 it opens the door for KK and Starr, but both teams would have to go 2-0. This proves to be difficult as both teams face Pippa Hills in the final two weeks. Looks like strength of schedule only matters in the sense that the better team does not always make it in.

Top 6

Let take a look at the top six teams, from highest rank to lowest, as it stand today. Note that the below charts show actual points vs the 3WMWA. 

1. QP -
Season Average Pts/Game: 118
3WMA: 93
3WMWA: 97

This has been the team to beat all season long, but after two losses in a row this team looks mortal. They peaked in Week 8 and haven't rebounded. If they finish #1, which is pretty likely, the will face  TwM or Duke in the second round of the playoffs (ceteris paribus).  This team has the potential to win it all with his big players Luck and Murray facing less than stellar defenses (Luck has the Cowboys and Titans for the final two weeks of the playoffs; Murray has Colts and Skins).

2. Cobra -
Season Average Pts/Game: 110
3WMA: 99
3WMWA: 97

I've been impressed with this team's consistency all year long, never scoring below 90 points is pretty incredible in of itself; the only other team to not score below 90 is KK. However, that same consistency has shown that explosive points is rare as he has only scored above 120 twice. He's got his playoff ticket punched, and while the seeding isn't all in order, he can benefit from knowing his team can put up 100 or more 75% of the time.

3. Pippa -
Season Average Pts/Game: 107
3WMA: 139
3WMWA: 135

I've got two charts for the streaking team because its unparalleled. Take a look at the 3WMA chart with three other teams, KK, Cobra, and Prayer. He is streaking by them as they are bottoming out. You could say he is peaking too soon, but we will know when the playoffs actually start. Right, Madden? I really think this is the team to beat and I see him finishing strong on seven week win streak.

This is not weighted. 

4. TwM -
Season Average Pts/Game: 99
3WMA: 87
3WMWA: 83

WoW. A game of up and down fellas and weak schedule is how this team is ranked so high. The only consistency is his inconsistency. He scores above 100 just 41% of the time. Sure he has had two major games, so the fire power is there when he is healthy. He better he gets healthy soon, as he has scored less than 100 three out of the four last weeks.

5. Duke -
Season Average Pts/Game: 101
3WMA: 101
3WMWA: 109 

One of the few teams that has fallen and rebounded significantly. He's on the upward trend and I am not feeling great about facing him next week. The former champ has some magical sauce around the playoffs 

6. SoL -
Season Average Pts/Game: 95
3WMA: 108
3WMWA: 109

With half of his games scoring below 100, this team is in the playoffs largely due to his schedule, but I have to credit to his performance over the past three weeks that has pushed him into the playoffs; he has set his season high and scored his third highest post. If he can keep this trend going it will be huge for him. It is also better for the league. There is a direct correlation between his activity on the message board and his success.

The Rest

The below two teams are on the outside looking in and need some help to get in.

7. KK -
Season Average Pts/Game: 108 
3WMA: 101
3WMWA: 99

Quite honestly, he should be in the playoffs. I want him to be there because this team is consistency good. When you don't have epic meltdown, as most teams have, it's really unfortunate to not make it in. I mean, look at the chart. This is a result of a tough schedule by way of a tough division. Sucks, yo.

8. Starr -
Season Average Pts/Game: 102
3WMA: 103
3WMWA: 104

I'm basically the inverse of what you want to have happen to your team. Meltdowns and a tough division. Hard to be a winner.

The rest of you guys weren't making the playoffs and I have spent entirely too much time putting this together. I'm sitting in a room with all of my family and I am on my computer. Sorry guys. If you want your chart, comment on this post. However, I encourage you to finish strong because the consolation tourney is coming up.*


*But who gives a sh!t