JJJL by the numbers 2014

Week five is in the books and with only nine more weeks to go before the end of the season, it is time to look at who are contenders, who are challengers, and in regulation.

First, lets compare the head to head match-ups of the High Desert League and the Sierra League. 

The Sierra League looks to be the more competitive league, with a higher average team rank, total points scored and wins against the opposing league. The Total Pts Agnst category shows how much more pts the Sierra League pours in than the High Desert League. 

See below for a table breaking down the league statistics further. 

Contenders

1. Quixotic Prayer (4-1) - Even with a pupcake schedule (in fact, the easiest in the league), he has absolutely destroyed his opponents by an average score of 37.1 points and leads the league in scoring with 618.58. He is riding two of the hottest players in fantasy football with Andrew Luck and DeMarco Murray. He is averaging 123.72 pts a game, has never scored below 100 pts, and is beating his projected score on average by +18%. I can't see anything but injury limiting him. 
2. Cobra Kai (4-1) - It wasn't until this week that his boy Peyton finally made an appearance - he blew up for 40+ pts (not that he needed it) - and scored the highest point total to date in the league with 149.16. But it has been his running back play that has kept his team strong; in his only loss (week 4 when Duke erupted for 131 pts), his running backs scored below 20. Whether its the Bell boys, West (who?), or A. Smith (WHO?!), he is seeing some great production. He also has had A. Jeffery and G. Olsen step up. When this team is firing on all cylinders, they are going to be extremely hard to beat. He has never dipped below 98 pts in a week, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 19.17, is beating his projected score on average by +11%, and is the only team in his division with a winning steak. 
3. Breath Taking Ruin (2-3) - Do not let her record fool you, she has averaged 103.88 pts/game (only 4 teams in league average > 100 pts/game) and is outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.78. She has had some very close games, losing by a total of 10.02 pts over her three losses, and just needs to find the right lineup. She is just under he projected points -2%. J. Cutler has been a gem for her (and is on pace for a career best) and J. Jones and M. Forte has lived up to their billing. If the season ended today, she would be out of the playoffs, so it is imperative that she starts getting some W's. 
4. Duke 91 & 92 (4-1) - Just last week I had him in my rankings on just the outside, but the last two weeks may be the beginning of his quest for back-to-back. His lone loss was an aberration at the hands of Pippa Hills. He is averaging 103.11 pts/game and is beating his projected score on average by +7%, despite the fourth most difficult schedule, outscoring opponents by an average margin of about 5 points a game. 

Challengers

1. kindergarten kops (3-2) - Averaging just under 100 pts/game, beating projections by +3%, and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10, this is a steady team that will be competitive week in and week out. While he hasn't had eye popping numbers (highest score was week 4 at 119.24 and lowest 91.84) he's got some solid players that can go off in A. Brown, A. Ellington, J. Charles, and dare I say it, T. Romo. This team has some real potential, despite having the third weakest schedule.  
2. Son of Luchesse (3-2) - Since the very beginning he has shifted the attention to everyone else with his "power rankings," but he's going to be real threat down the line. Despite having a poor week (which everyone has had or is going to have) he has averaged 99.57 pts a game, He has left a considerable amount of points on the bench (+70 in week 1 and week 3), largely due to having Matt Ryan riding the pine (of total possible points left on the bench, he is above the league average of 30% with 36%). But he put that asset to work, creating the first trade of this year, taking V. Cruz straight up. He is averaging just under 100 pts/game, but has one of the weaker schedules in the league and is outscoring opponents by average margin of just under 10. 
3. Mrs. Starr (3-2) - Narrow victories over two of the top teams (Quixotic Prayer week 1 and Breathtaking Ruin in week 2 by .2 pts!) he has done little else. This team is living off of their early successes and is under performing projected points on average by -6% and has chalked up the second lowest score in a week of 54.14 in week 3 (Paragon Heroes has the lowest with 47.5). They have had the third most difficult schedule and are being outscored by an average margin of just over 19, with teams averaging 113 pts/game. This team is faltering and need to change its course. 
4. Tuesdays w/Megatron (2-3) - Over manages. He loves to leave points on the bench, with the highest in the league of about 54 pts/game and 37% of total possible points. His scoring has been sporadic and averages just over 93 pts/game and is below his projected points by -9%. He is close, he is only being outscored on average by about 5 pts/game, but he needs to revisit some managing classes.  

Regulation 

1. Bayo'wolf (0-5) - With just too many tough losses to overcome, I can't see his luck and or record changing that much. He has a good team, but caught too many bad breaks. He is averaging about 95 pts/game, but has the second most difficult schedule, with opponents averaging 114.75 pts/game. He is just under his projected scores with -3% weekly average. 
2. Kaepivating (1-4) - Averaging about 89 pts/game and being outscored by about 7.5 a week has made this a difficult season for him. His bench accounts for just 12% of total possible points scored, so its not like he has a reserve to tap into, this is the best that he has. 
3. Pippa Hills (3-2) - Counterintuitive to have a team with a winning record on the bottom of the pile, but he has an easier schedule, but averages just 84.9 pts/game and is getting outscored by an average margin of just 10 pts/game. He has scored over 80 pts just twice and is under performing projected points on average by -11%. 
4. Paragon Heroes (1-4) - Rough. Underperforming his projected points by an average of -24% a week, this season has been ugly for him. Not only his players not playing, he has drawn the most difficult schedule, with opponents averaging just over 115 pts/game.